Emerging El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific are the main driver positioning 2026 as the probable second-warmest year on record, with trader-implied odds favoring that outcome at 57.5%. NOAA models indicate an 82% chance of El Niño onset by May–July 2026, building on the transition from recent neutral-to-La Niña conditions and amplifying the long-term anthropogenic warming trend already evident in 2024 and 2025 data. Early-year global temperature anomalies through March place 2026 fourth-warmest so far, yet the developing ocean-atmosphere coupling introduces forecast uncertainty around peak strength and exact ranking. This leaves a 33.5% implied probability for 2026 claiming the top spot if the event strengthens substantially, consistent with historical patterns where moderate-to-strong El Niño years have produced record or near-record warmth.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트2 57%
1 34%
4 2.8%
6위 이하 2.3%
$2,819,601 거래량
$2,819,601 거래량
2026.12.31
1
34%
2
57%
3
2%
4
3%
5
1%
6위 이하
2%
2 57%
1 34%
4 2.8%
6위 이하 2.3%
$2,819,601 거래량
$2,819,601 거래량
2026.12.31
1
$453,667 거래량
34%
2
$325,789 거래량
57%
3
$427,594 거래량
2%
4
$416,574 거래량
3%
5
$731,047 거래량
1%
6위 이하
$464,929 거래량
2%
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Emerging El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific are the main driver positioning 2026 as the probable second-warmest year on record, with trader-implied odds favoring that outcome at 57.5%. NOAA models indicate an 82% chance of El Niño onset by May–July 2026, building on the transition from recent neutral-to-La Niña conditions and amplifying the long-term anthropogenic warming trend already evident in 2024 and 2025 data. Early-year global temperature anomalies through March place 2026 fourth-warmest so far, yet the developing ocean-atmosphere coupling introduces forecast uncertainty around peak strength and exact ranking. This leaves a 33.5% implied probability for 2026 claiming the top spot if the event strengthens substantially, consistent with historical patterns where moderate-to-strong El Niño years have produced record or near-record warmth.
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
마켓 개설일: Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ET
거래량
$2,819,601종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Emerging El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific are the main driver positioning 2026 as the probable second-warmest year on record, with trader-implied odds favoring that outcome at 57.5%. NOAA models indicate an 82% chance of El Niño onset by May–July 2026, building on the transition from recent neutral-to-La Niña conditions and amplifying the long-term anthropogenic warming trend already evident in 2024 and 2025 data. Early-year global temperature anomalies through March place 2026 fourth-warmest so far, yet the developing ocean-atmosphere coupling introduces forecast uncertainty around peak strength and exact ranking. This leaves a 33.5% implied probability for 2026 claiming the top spot if the event strengthens substantially, consistent with historical patterns where moderate-to-strong El Niño years have produced record or near-record warmth.
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
거래량
$2,819,601종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Emerging El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific are the main driver positioning 2026 as the probable second-warmest year on record, with trader-implied odds favoring that outcome at 57.5%. NOAA models indicate an 82% chance of El Niño onset by May–July 2026, building on the transition from recent neutral-to-La Niña conditions and amplifying the long-term anthropogenic warming trend already evident in 2024 and 2025 data. Early-year global temperature anomalies through March place 2026 fourth-warmest so far, yet the developing ocean-atmosphere coupling introduces forecast uncertainty around peak strength and exact ranking. This leaves a 33.5% implied probability for 2026 claiming the top spot if the event strengthens substantially, consistent with historical patterns where moderate-to-strong El Niño years have produced record or near-record warmth.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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