SpaceX Starship remains in an extended testing phase, with only 11 flights completed through late 2025 and Flight 12—the debut of the upgraded V3 vehicle—now slated for May 19, 2026 after an eight-month hiatus. Persistent technical anomalies during static fires and prior tests, combined with FAA licensing timelines and environmental reviews for expanded operations, have kept launch frequency low. Traders price in this deliberate “fly, learn, repeat” approach, which prioritizes incremental hardware and software improvements over rapid cadence, making fewer than five successful ascents to space the consensus outcome for the full year despite growing regulatory headroom for up to 25 annual launches.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트5회 미만 59%
5-6 32%
7-8 4.3%
9-10 2.4%
$449,593 거래량
$449,593 거래량
2026.12.31
5회 미만
59%
5-6
26%
7-8
4%
9-10
2%
11-12
2%
13-14
1%
15-16
2%
>16
2%
5회 미만 59%
5-6 32%
7-8 4.3%
9-10 2.4%
$449,593 거래량
$449,593 거래량
2026.12.31
5회 미만
$90,504 거래량
59%
5-6
$108,316 거래량
26%
7-8
$152,148 거래량
4%
9-10
$55,882 거래량
2%
11-12
$3,765 거래량
2%
13-14
$4,747 거래량
1%
15-16
$25,181 거래량
2%
>16
$9,048 거래량
2%
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.SpaceX Starship remains in an extended testing phase, with only 11 flights completed through late 2025 and Flight 12—the debut of the upgraded V3 vehicle—now slated for May 19, 2026 after an eight-month hiatus. Persistent technical anomalies during static fires and prior tests, combined with FAA licensing timelines and environmental reviews for expanded operations, have kept launch frequency low. Traders price in this deliberate “fly, learn, repeat” approach, which prioritizes incremental hardware and software improvements over rapid cadence, making fewer than five successful ascents to space the consensus outcome for the full year despite growing regulatory headroom for up to 25 annual launches.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
마켓 개설일: Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ET
거래량
$449,593종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.SpaceX Starship remains in an extended testing phase, with only 11 flights completed through late 2025 and Flight 12—the debut of the upgraded V3 vehicle—now slated for May 19, 2026 after an eight-month hiatus. Persistent technical anomalies during static fires and prior tests, combined with FAA licensing timelines and environmental reviews for expanded operations, have kept launch frequency low. Traders price in this deliberate “fly, learn, repeat” approach, which prioritizes incremental hardware and software improvements over rapid cadence, making fewer than five successful ascents to space the consensus outcome for the full year despite growing regulatory headroom for up to 25 annual launches.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
거래량
$449,593종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...SpaceX Starship remains in an extended testing phase, with only 11 flights completed through late 2025 and Flight 12—the debut of the upgraded V3 vehicle—now slated for May 19, 2026 after an eight-month hiatus. Persistent technical anomalies during static fires and prior tests, combined with FAA licensing timelines and environmental reviews for expanded operations, have kept launch frequency low. Traders price in this deliberate “fly, learn, repeat” approach, which prioritizes incremental hardware and software improvements over rapid cadence, making fewer than five successful ascents to space the consensus outcome for the full year despite growing regulatory headroom for up to 25 annual launches.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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