NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies Sentry system currently lists no known near-Earth objects on trajectories capable of delivering a 1-megaton airburst in 2026, driving the market’s 96.9 percent “No” consensus. Objects in the 25–40 meter range release energy comparable to the 2013 Chelyabinsk event yet strike Earth only once every several decades on average. Ongoing optical and infrared surveys, including Pan-STARRS and Catalina, have catalogued virtually all candidates of this size well in advance, with zero qualifying detections reported through mid-May. Trader confidence therefore rests on the absence of both confirmed impactors and any emerging orbital solutions that would alter the negligible cumulative probability. The sole remaining uncertainty involves an undetected fast-moving bolide below 30 meters, a scenario whose odds continue to shrink as new observational data arrive.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$106,060 거래량
$106,060 거래량
2026.12.31
예
$106,060 거래량
$106,060 거래량
2026.12.31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies Sentry system currently lists no known near-Earth objects on trajectories capable of delivering a 1-megaton airburst in 2026, driving the market’s 96.9 percent “No” consensus. Objects in the 25–40 meter range release energy comparable to the 2013 Chelyabinsk event yet strike Earth only once every several decades on average. Ongoing optical and infrared surveys, including Pan-STARRS and Catalina, have catalogued virtually all candidates of this size well in advance, with zero qualifying detections reported through mid-May. Trader confidence therefore rests on the absence of both confirmed impactors and any emerging orbital solutions that would alter the negligible cumulative probability. The sole remaining uncertainty involves an undetected fast-moving bolide below 30 meters, a scenario whose odds continue to shrink as new observational data arrive.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
마켓 개설일: Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
거래량
$106,060종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies Sentry system currently lists no known near-Earth objects on trajectories capable of delivering a 1-megaton airburst in 2026, driving the market’s 96.9 percent “No” consensus. Objects in the 25–40 meter range release energy comparable to the 2013 Chelyabinsk event yet strike Earth only once every several decades on average. Ongoing optical and infrared surveys, including Pan-STARRS and Catalina, have catalogued virtually all candidates of this size well in advance, with zero qualifying detections reported through mid-May. Trader confidence therefore rests on the absence of both confirmed impactors and any emerging orbital solutions that would alter the negligible cumulative probability. The sole remaining uncertainty involves an undetected fast-moving bolide below 30 meters, a scenario whose odds continue to shrink as new observational data arrive.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
거래량
$106,060종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies Sentry system currently lists no known near-Earth objects on trajectories capable of delivering a 1-megaton airburst in 2026, driving the market’s 96.9 percent “No” consensus. Objects in the 25–40 meter range release energy comparable to the 2013 Chelyabinsk event yet strike Earth only once every several decades on average. Ongoing optical and infrared surveys, including Pan-STARRS and Catalina, have catalogued virtually all candidates of this size well in advance, with zero qualifying detections reported through mid-May. Trader confidence therefore rests on the absence of both confirmed impactors and any emerging orbital solutions that would alter the negligible cumulative probability. The sole remaining uncertainty involves an undetected fast-moving bolide below 30 meters, a scenario whose odds continue to shrink as new observational data arrive.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
자주 묻는 질문