Ongoing NASA monitoring of near-Earth objects shows no large asteroids on trajectories capable of delivering a 10-kiloton or greater impact through the remainder of 2026, supporting the market's strong "No" consensus. Advances in ground-based telescopes, radar systems, and orbital modeling have cataloged tens of thousands of objects, allowing precise trajectory refinements that rule out major strikes. While small fireballs and house-sized asteroids have been tracked recently, none approach the energy threshold, and historical data confirm such events remain rare. Upcoming surveys and continued planetary defense coordination further reduce uncertainty, reinforcing trader confidence that no qualifying meteor strike will occur this year.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$153,442 거래량
$153,442 거래량
2026.12.31
예
$153,442 거래량
$153,442 거래량
2026.12.31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Ongoing NASA monitoring of near-Earth objects shows no large asteroids on trajectories capable of delivering a 10-kiloton or greater impact through the remainder of 2026, supporting the market's strong "No" consensus. Advances in ground-based telescopes, radar systems, and orbital modeling have cataloged tens of thousands of objects, allowing precise trajectory refinements that rule out major strikes. While small fireballs and house-sized asteroids have been tracked recently, none approach the energy threshold, and historical data confirm such events remain rare. Upcoming surveys and continued planetary defense coordination further reduce uncertainty, reinforcing trader confidence that no qualifying meteor strike will occur this year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
마켓 개설일: Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ET
거래량
$153,442종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Ongoing NASA monitoring of near-Earth objects shows no large asteroids on trajectories capable of delivering a 10-kiloton or greater impact through the remainder of 2026, supporting the market's strong "No" consensus. Advances in ground-based telescopes, radar systems, and orbital modeling have cataloged tens of thousands of objects, allowing precise trajectory refinements that rule out major strikes. While small fireballs and house-sized asteroids have been tracked recently, none approach the energy threshold, and historical data confirm such events remain rare. Upcoming surveys and continued planetary defense coordination further reduce uncertainty, reinforcing trader confidence that no qualifying meteor strike will occur this year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
거래량
$153,442종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing NASA monitoring of near-Earth objects shows no large asteroids on trajectories capable of delivering a 10-kiloton or greater impact through the remainder of 2026, supporting the market's strong "No" consensus. Advances in ground-based telescopes, radar systems, and orbital modeling have cataloged tens of thousands of objects, allowing precise trajectory refinements that rule out major strikes. While small fireballs and house-sized asteroids have been tracked recently, none approach the energy threshold, and historical data confirm such events remain rare. Upcoming surveys and continued planetary defense coordination further reduce uncertainty, reinforcing trader confidence that no qualifying meteor strike will occur this year.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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