Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors over 1250 US tornadoes in 2026 (65.5% implied probability), propelled by an exceptionally active early season confirmed by National Weather Service surveys. Through late April, NOAA data logs over 450 confirmed tornadoes—far exceeding the typical ~250-300 year-to-date pace—with major outbreaks like the violent April 17 Upper Midwest event (80+ tornadoes) and an EF4 near Enid, Oklahoma on April 23 fueling the surge. March alone saw preliminary reports 80% above average at 280, per NCEI summaries. Favorable spring patterns, including robust Gulf moisture and dynamic upper-air support, have boosted activity, though inherent forecast uncertainty persists into peak May-June months. Traders eye upcoming SPC convective outlooks for shifts in severe potential.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트1250+ 63%
1150~1199 16.9%
1050–1099 2.7%
1100–1149 2.4%
$71,670 거래량
$71,670 거래량
2027.01.10
<950
<1%
950–999
<1%
1000–1049
1%
1050–1099
3%
1100–1149
2%
1150~1199
17%
1200~1249
31%
1250+
61%
1250+ 63%
1150~1199 16.9%
1050–1099 2.7%
1100–1149 2.4%
$71,670 거래량
$71,670 거래량
2027.01.10
<950
$22,404 거래량
<1%
950–999
$2,749 거래량
<1%
1000–1049
$2,424 거래량
1%
1050–1099
$7,841 거래량
3%
1100–1149
$2,005 거래량
2%
1150~1199
$2,452 거래량
17%
1200~1249
$15,173 거래량
31%
1250+
$16,622 거래량
61%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors over 1250 US tornadoes in 2026 (65.5% implied probability), propelled by an exceptionally active early season confirmed by National Weather Service surveys. Through late April, NOAA data logs over 450 confirmed tornadoes—far exceeding the typical ~250-300 year-to-date pace—with major outbreaks like the violent April 17 Upper Midwest event (80+ tornadoes) and an EF4 near Enid, Oklahoma on April 23 fueling the surge. March alone saw preliminary reports 80% above average at 280, per NCEI summaries. Favorable spring patterns, including robust Gulf moisture and dynamic upper-air support, have boosted activity, though inherent forecast uncertainty persists into peak May-June months. Traders eye upcoming SPC convective outlooks for shifts in severe potential.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
마켓 개설일: Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ET
거래량
$71,670종료일
2027.01.10마켓 개설일
Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors over 1250 US tornadoes in 2026 (65.5% implied probability), propelled by an exceptionally active early season confirmed by National Weather Service surveys. Through late April, NOAA data logs over 450 confirmed tornadoes—far exceeding the typical ~250-300 year-to-date pace—with major outbreaks like the violent April 17 Upper Midwest event (80+ tornadoes) and an EF4 near Enid, Oklahoma on April 23 fueling the surge. March alone saw preliminary reports 80% above average at 280, per NCEI summaries. Favorable spring patterns, including robust Gulf moisture and dynamic upper-air support, have boosted activity, though inherent forecast uncertainty persists into peak May-June months. Traders eye upcoming SPC convective outlooks for shifts in severe potential.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
거래량
$71,670종료일
2027.01.10마켓 개설일
Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors over 1250 US tornadoes in 2026 (65.5% implied probability), propelled by an exceptionally active early season confirmed by National Weather Service surveys. Through late April, NOAA data logs over 450 confirmed tornadoes—far exceeding the typical ~250-300 year-to-date pace—with major outbreaks like the violent April 17 Upper Midwest event (80+ tornadoes) and an EF4 near Enid, Oklahoma on April 23 fueling the surge. March alone saw preliminary reports 80% above average at 280, per NCEI summaries. Favorable spring patterns, including robust Gulf moisture and dynamic upper-air support, have boosted activity, though inherent forecast uncertainty persists into peak May-June months. Traders eye upcoming SPC convective outlooks for shifts in severe potential.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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