**Active early-season outbreaks and favorable atmospheric conditions have positioned 2026 on track for an above-average U.S. tornado total exceeding 1,250.** Through mid-June, confirmed counts reached 723 amid repeated March and April events fueled by a persistent jet stream pattern that funneled warm, moist Gulf air into the Midwest and Plains, creating high instability and shear. Illinois alone recorded over 140 tornadoes, reflecting an eastward shift in activity. Long-range outlooks anticipated near- or slightly above-normal annual totals around 1,050–1,250, consistent with historical averages near 1,200 and the tendency for preliminary reports to be revised upward. Ongoing El Niño conditions and typical summer–fall contributions further support trader consensus for the highest bin.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트How many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?
How many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?
1250+ 62%
1200–1249 12.9%
1150–1199 5.8%
1100–1149 2.9%
$73,481 거래량
$73,481 거래량
2027.01.10
<950
1%
950–999
1%
1000–1049
1%
1050–1099
1%
1100–1149
3%
1150–1199
6%
1200–1249
14%
1250+
52%
1250+ 62%
1200–1249 12.9%
1150–1199 5.8%
1100–1149 2.9%
$73,481 거래량
$73,481 거래량
2027.01.10
<950
$22,526 거래량
1%
950–999
$3,042 거래량
1%
1000–1049
$2,736 거래량
1%
1050–1099
$7,927 거래량
1%
1100–1149
$2,194 거래량
3%
1150–1199
$2,727 거래량
6%
1200–1249
$15,245 거래량
14%
1250+
$17,084 거래량
52%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.**Active early-season outbreaks and favorable atmospheric conditions have positioned 2026 on track for an above-average U.S. tornado total exceeding 1,250.** Through mid-June, confirmed counts reached 723 amid repeated March and April events fueled by a persistent jet stream pattern that funneled warm, moist Gulf air into the Midwest and Plains, creating high instability and shear. Illinois alone recorded over 140 tornadoes, reflecting an eastward shift in activity. Long-range outlooks anticipated near- or slightly above-normal annual totals around 1,050–1,250, consistent with historical averages near 1,200 and the tendency for preliminary reports to be revised upward. Ongoing El Niño conditions and typical summer–fall contributions further support trader consensus for the highest bin.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
마켓 개설일: Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ET
거래량
$73,481종료일
2027.01.10마켓 개설일
Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.**Active early-season outbreaks and favorable atmospheric conditions have positioned 2026 on track for an above-average U.S. tornado total exceeding 1,250.** Through mid-June, confirmed counts reached 723 amid repeated March and April events fueled by a persistent jet stream pattern that funneled warm, moist Gulf air into the Midwest and Plains, creating high instability and shear. Illinois alone recorded over 140 tornadoes, reflecting an eastward shift in activity. Long-range outlooks anticipated near- or slightly above-normal annual totals around 1,050–1,250, consistent with historical averages near 1,200 and the tendency for preliminary reports to be revised upward. Ongoing El Niño conditions and typical summer–fall contributions further support trader consensus for the highest bin.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
거래량
$73,481종료일
2027.01.10마켓 개설일
Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Active early-season outbreaks and favorable atmospheric conditions have positioned 2026 on track for an above-average U.S. tornado total exceeding 1,250.** Through mid-June, confirmed counts reached 723 amid repeated March and April events fueled by a persistent jet stream pattern that funneled warm, moist Gulf air into the Midwest and Plains, creating high instability and shear. Illinois alone recorded over 140 tornadoes, reflecting an eastward shift in activity. Long-range outlooks anticipated near- or slightly above-normal annual totals around 1,050–1,250, consistent with historical averages near 1,200 and the tendency for preliminary reports to be revised upward. Ongoing El Niño conditions and typical summer–fall contributions further support trader consensus for the highest bin.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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