NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies Sentry system reports no known near-Earth objects on collision trajectories capable of delivering 100 kilotons of airburst energy in 2026, driving the 91.8 percent market-implied probability for no strike. Ongoing surveys by Pan-STARRS and Catalina Sky Survey continue to catalog small objects without identifying any 10–30 meter impactors on track for this year, consistent with the decade-scale average frequency of Chelyabinsk-class events. Traders assign low odds to an undetected bolide because infrared capabilities from the upcoming NEO Surveyor mission further reduce blind spots. A realistic challenge remains a late-discovered sub-30 meter object whose orbit is refined only days before entry, though current model runs show no such candidates.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
신규
2026.12.31
신규
신규
2026.12.31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies Sentry system reports no known near-Earth objects on collision trajectories capable of delivering 100 kilotons of airburst energy in 2026, driving the 91.8 percent market-implied probability for no strike. Ongoing surveys by Pan-STARRS and Catalina Sky Survey continue to catalog small objects without identifying any 10–30 meter impactors on track for this year, consistent with the decade-scale average frequency of Chelyabinsk-class events. Traders assign low odds to an undetected bolide because infrared capabilities from the upcoming NEO Surveyor mission further reduce blind spots. A realistic challenge remains a late-discovered sub-30 meter object whose orbit is refined only days before entry, though current model runs show no such candidates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
마켓 개설일: Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ET
거래량
$7,235종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies Sentry system reports no known near-Earth objects on collision trajectories capable of delivering 100 kilotons of airburst energy in 2026, driving the 91.8 percent market-implied probability for no strike. Ongoing surveys by Pan-STARRS and Catalina Sky Survey continue to catalog small objects without identifying any 10–30 meter impactors on track for this year, consistent with the decade-scale average frequency of Chelyabinsk-class events. Traders assign low odds to an undetected bolide because infrared capabilities from the upcoming NEO Surveyor mission further reduce blind spots. A realistic challenge remains a late-discovered sub-30 meter object whose orbit is refined only days before entry, though current model runs show no such candidates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
거래량
$7,235종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies Sentry system reports no known near-Earth objects on collision trajectories capable of delivering 100 kilotons of airburst energy in 2026, driving the 91.8 percent market-implied probability for no strike. Ongoing surveys by Pan-STARRS and Catalina Sky Survey continue to catalog small objects without identifying any 10–30 meter impactors on track for this year, consistent with the decade-scale average frequency of Chelyabinsk-class events. Traders assign low odds to an undetected bolide because infrared capabilities from the upcoming NEO Surveyor mission further reduce blind spots. A realistic challenge remains a late-discovered sub-30 meter object whose orbit is refined only days before entry, though current model runs show no such candidates.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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