Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" for a 5-kiloton meteor airburst in 2026 at 66.5% implied probability, reflecting NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) confirmation of zero tracked asteroids posing collision risks that year via the Sentry impact monitoring system. Recent 2026 fireball detections—such as the March Ohio event with sonic booms and a Q1 maximum of 0.25 kilotons TNT equivalent—have spiked reports to record levels but remain far below the 5kt threshold, underscoring detection biases rather than elevated threat levels. Historically, bolides of this energy occur roughly once every few years globally, with inherent uncertainty from untracked small meteoroids; ongoing CNEOS surveillance and NEO Surveyor telescope advancements will refine odds through year-end data releases.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$299,806 거래량
$299,806 거래량
2026.12.31
예
$299,806 거래량
$299,806 거래량
2026.12.31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" for a 5-kiloton meteor airburst in 2026 at 66.5% implied probability, reflecting NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) confirmation of zero tracked asteroids posing collision risks that year via the Sentry impact monitoring system. Recent 2026 fireball detections—such as the March Ohio event with sonic booms and a Q1 maximum of 0.25 kilotons TNT equivalent—have spiked reports to record levels but remain far below the 5kt threshold, underscoring detection biases rather than elevated threat levels. Historically, bolides of this energy occur roughly once every few years globally, with inherent uncertainty from untracked small meteoroids; ongoing CNEOS surveillance and NEO Surveyor telescope advancements will refine odds through year-end data releases.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
마켓 개설일: Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
거래량
$299,806종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" for a 5-kiloton meteor airburst in 2026 at 66.5% implied probability, reflecting NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) confirmation of zero tracked asteroids posing collision risks that year via the Sentry impact monitoring system. Recent 2026 fireball detections—such as the March Ohio event with sonic booms and a Q1 maximum of 0.25 kilotons TNT equivalent—have spiked reports to record levels but remain far below the 5kt threshold, underscoring detection biases rather than elevated threat levels. Historically, bolides of this energy occur roughly once every few years globally, with inherent uncertainty from untracked small meteoroids; ongoing CNEOS surveillance and NEO Surveyor telescope advancements will refine odds through year-end data releases.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
거래량
$299,806종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" for a 5-kiloton meteor airburst in 2026 at 66.5% implied probability, reflecting NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) confirmation of zero tracked asteroids posing collision risks that year via the Sentry impact monitoring system. Recent 2026 fireball detections—such as the March Ohio event with sonic booms and a Q1 maximum of 0.25 kilotons TNT equivalent—have spiked reports to record levels but remain far below the 5kt threshold, underscoring detection biases rather than elevated threat levels. Historically, bolides of this energy occur roughly once every few years globally, with inherent uncertainty from untracked small meteoroids; ongoing CNEOS surveillance and NEO Surveyor telescope advancements will refine odds through year-end data releases.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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