The overwhelming trader consensus against a magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquake before 2027 rests on fundamental limits of Earth's tectonics. No event exceeding 9.5 has ever been recorded, and the moment magnitude scale shows that such intensity would require fault ruptures spanning thousands of kilometers—far beyond the longest known plate boundaries monitored by the USGS. Historical data and seismic models confirm that maximum energy release stays well below this threshold due to crustal constraints. While rare, undetected deep-focus activity or revised measurement methods could theoretically alter outcomes, current observations make this scenario highly improbable within the remaining timeframe.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$602,797 거래량
$602,797 거래량
2026.12.31
예
$602,797 거래량
$602,797 거래량
2026.12.31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.The overwhelming trader consensus against a magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquake before 2027 rests on fundamental limits of Earth's tectonics. No event exceeding 9.5 has ever been recorded, and the moment magnitude scale shows that such intensity would require fault ruptures spanning thousands of kilometers—far beyond the longest known plate boundaries monitored by the USGS. Historical data and seismic models confirm that maximum energy release stays well below this threshold due to crustal constraints. While rare, undetected deep-focus activity or revised measurement methods could theoretically alter outcomes, current observations make this scenario highly improbable within the remaining timeframe.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
마켓 개설일: Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ET
거래량
$602,797종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.The overwhelming trader consensus against a magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquake before 2027 rests on fundamental limits of Earth's tectonics. No event exceeding 9.5 has ever been recorded, and the moment magnitude scale shows that such intensity would require fault ruptures spanning thousands of kilometers—far beyond the longest known plate boundaries monitored by the USGS. Historical data and seismic models confirm that maximum energy release stays well below this threshold due to crustal constraints. While rare, undetected deep-focus activity or revised measurement methods could theoretically alter outcomes, current observations make this scenario highly improbable within the remaining timeframe.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
거래량
$602,797종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The overwhelming trader consensus against a magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquake before 2027 rests on fundamental limits of Earth's tectonics. No event exceeding 9.5 has ever been recorded, and the moment magnitude scale shows that such intensity would require fault ruptures spanning thousands of kilometers—far beyond the longest known plate boundaries monitored by the USGS. Historical data and seismic models confirm that maximum energy release stays well below this threshold due to crustal constraints. While rare, undetected deep-focus activity or revised measurement methods could theoretically alter outcomes, current observations make this scenario highly improbable within the remaining timeframe.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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