Trader consensus centers on July tornado counts near or slightly below the 1991–2020 average of roughly 119 reports, as reflected in the leading 100–129 and sub-100 bins. This positioning stems from typical post-peak seasonal patterns, with activity shifting northward into the central and northern Plains amid waning springtime shear and Gulf moisture. Large-scale drivers such as the ongoing transition out of La Niña favor near-normal instability setups rather than the elevated counts seen in recent active summers. High interannual variability arises from short-term jet stream positioning and convective triggers, with official Storm Prediction Center monitoring and model guidance expected to refine the outlook ahead of peak July risk periods.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트7월에 미국에서 토네이도가 몇 번 발생하나요?
7월에 미국에서 토네이도가 몇 번 발생하나요?
100–129 42%
<100 39%
310+ 36%
280–310 25%
신규
신규
2026.08.01
<100
39%
100–129
42%
130–159
24%
160–189
24%
190–219
24%
220–249
24%
250–279
24%
280–310
24%
310+
36%
100–129 42%
<100 39%
310+ 36%
280–310 25%
신규
신규
2026.08.01
<100
$22 거래량
39%
100–129
$44 거래량
42%
130–159
$59 거래량
24%
160–189
$40 거래량
24%
190–219
$41 거래량
24%
220–249
$33 거래량
24%
250–279
$42 거래량
24%
280–310
$102 거래량
24%
310+
$40 거래량
36%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on August 10, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Trader consensus centers on July tornado counts near or slightly below the 1991–2020 average of roughly 119 reports, as reflected in the leading 100–129 and sub-100 bins. This positioning stems from typical post-peak seasonal patterns, with activity shifting northward into the central and northern Plains amid waning springtime shear and Gulf moisture. Large-scale drivers such as the ongoing transition out of La Niña favor near-normal instability setups rather than the elevated counts seen in recent active summers. High interannual variability arises from short-term jet stream positioning and convective triggers, with official Storm Prediction Center monitoring and model guidance expected to refine the outlook ahead of peak July risk periods.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on August 10, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on August 10, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
마켓 개설일: Jun 9, 2026, 1:12 PM ET
거래량
$422종료일
2026.08.01마켓 개설일
Jun 9, 2026, 1:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on August 10, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Trader consensus centers on July tornado counts near or slightly below the 1991–2020 average of roughly 119 reports, as reflected in the leading 100–129 and sub-100 bins. This positioning stems from typical post-peak seasonal patterns, with activity shifting northward into the central and northern Plains amid waning springtime shear and Gulf moisture. Large-scale drivers such as the ongoing transition out of La Niña favor near-normal instability setups rather than the elevated counts seen in recent active summers. High interannual variability arises from short-term jet stream positioning and convective triggers, with official Storm Prediction Center monitoring and model guidance expected to refine the outlook ahead of peak July risk periods.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on August 10, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on August 10, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
거래량
$422종료일
2026.08.01마켓 개설일
Jun 9, 2026, 1:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus centers on July tornado counts near or slightly below the 1991–2020 average of roughly 119 reports, as reflected in the leading 100–129 and sub-100 bins. This positioning stems from typical post-peak seasonal patterns, with activity shifting northward into the central and northern Plains amid waning springtime shear and Gulf moisture. Large-scale drivers such as the ongoing transition out of La Niña favor near-normal instability setups rather than the elevated counts seen in recent active summers. High interannual variability arises from short-term jet stream positioning and convective triggers, with official Storm Prediction Center monitoring and model guidance expected to refine the outlook ahead of peak July risk periods.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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