Trader consensus strongly favors no Category 5 hurricane landfall in the United States before 2027, driven by the inherent rarity of such extreme events on the Saffir-Simpson scale, which requires sustained winds above 157 mph at landfall. Historical records from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration indicate only a handful of verified Category 5 U.S. landfalls since 1900, with most intense storms weakening rapidly before reaching the coast due to cooler shelf waters and increased wind shear. Current Atlantic basin conditions, including typical sea-surface temperature anomalies and steering patterns projected for the 2026 season, align with climatological averages that limit major hurricane intensification near the shoreline. National Hurricane Center seasonal outlooks expected in spring 2026 will offer updated model consensus on landfall probabilities, though atmospheric variability could still shift outcomes within the remaining timeframe.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$135,286 거래량
$135,286 거래량
2026.12.31
예
$135,286 거래량
$135,286 거래량
2026.12.31
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Trader consensus strongly favors no Category 5 hurricane landfall in the United States before 2027, driven by the inherent rarity of such extreme events on the Saffir-Simpson scale, which requires sustained winds above 157 mph at landfall. Historical records from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration indicate only a handful of verified Category 5 U.S. landfalls since 1900, with most intense storms weakening rapidly before reaching the coast due to cooler shelf waters and increased wind shear. Current Atlantic basin conditions, including typical sea-surface temperature anomalies and steering patterns projected for the 2026 season, align with climatological averages that limit major hurricane intensification near the shoreline. National Hurricane Center seasonal outlooks expected in spring 2026 will offer updated model consensus on landfall probabilities, though atmospheric variability could still shift outcomes within the remaining timeframe.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
마켓 개설일: Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ET
거래량
$135,286종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Trader consensus strongly favors no Category 5 hurricane landfall in the United States before 2027, driven by the inherent rarity of such extreme events on the Saffir-Simpson scale, which requires sustained winds above 157 mph at landfall. Historical records from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration indicate only a handful of verified Category 5 U.S. landfalls since 1900, with most intense storms weakening rapidly before reaching the coast due to cooler shelf waters and increased wind shear. Current Atlantic basin conditions, including typical sea-surface temperature anomalies and steering patterns projected for the 2026 season, align with climatological averages that limit major hurricane intensification near the shoreline. National Hurricane Center seasonal outlooks expected in spring 2026 will offer updated model consensus on landfall probabilities, though atmospheric variability could still shift outcomes within the remaining timeframe.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
거래량
$135,286종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus strongly favors no Category 5 hurricane landfall in the United States before 2027, driven by the inherent rarity of such extreme events on the Saffir-Simpson scale, which requires sustained winds above 157 mph at landfall. Historical records from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration indicate only a handful of verified Category 5 U.S. landfalls since 1900, with most intense storms weakening rapidly before reaching the coast due to cooler shelf waters and increased wind shear. Current Atlantic basin conditions, including typical sea-surface temperature anomalies and steering patterns projected for the 2026 season, align with climatological averages that limit major hurricane intensification near the shoreline. National Hurricane Center seasonal outlooks expected in spring 2026 will offer updated model consensus on landfall probabilities, though atmospheric variability could still shift outcomes within the remaining timeframe.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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