The extreme rarity of magnitude 9.0+ earthquakes, as documented in the USGS global catalog with only five such events since 1900—1960 Chile (9.5), 1964 Alaska (9.2), 1952 Kamchatka (9.0), 2004 Sumatra (9.1–9.3), and 2011 Tōhoku (9.0–9.1)—underpins the 95.9% market-implied probability for "No" before 2027. Averaging fewer than one per 25 years worldwide, none has occurred in 15 years amid steady seismic rates (USGS reports ~1 M8+ annually, far more common), and with under eight months left, the brief window further suppresses odds absent precursors. Realistic scenarios shifting sentiment include abrupt full rupture of a locked subduction zone like Cascadia or southern Chile, though current USGS monitoring reveals no anomalous strain or foreshock clusters; watch for quarterly hazard updates.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$189,830 거래량
$189,830 거래량
2026.12.31
예
$189,830 거래량
$189,830 거래량
2026.12.31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.The extreme rarity of magnitude 9.0+ earthquakes, as documented in the USGS global catalog with only five such events since 1900—1960 Chile (9.5), 1964 Alaska (9.2), 1952 Kamchatka (9.0), 2004 Sumatra (9.1–9.3), and 2011 Tōhoku (9.0–9.1)—underpins the 95.9% market-implied probability for "No" before 2027. Averaging fewer than one per 25 years worldwide, none has occurred in 15 years amid steady seismic rates (USGS reports ~1 M8+ annually, far more common), and with under eight months left, the brief window further suppresses odds absent precursors. Realistic scenarios shifting sentiment include abrupt full rupture of a locked subduction zone like Cascadia or southern Chile, though current USGS monitoring reveals no anomalous strain or foreshock clusters; watch for quarterly hazard updates.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
마켓 개설일: Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ET
거래량
$189,830종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.The extreme rarity of magnitude 9.0+ earthquakes, as documented in the USGS global catalog with only five such events since 1900—1960 Chile (9.5), 1964 Alaska (9.2), 1952 Kamchatka (9.0), 2004 Sumatra (9.1–9.3), and 2011 Tōhoku (9.0–9.1)—underpins the 95.9% market-implied probability for "No" before 2027. Averaging fewer than one per 25 years worldwide, none has occurred in 15 years amid steady seismic rates (USGS reports ~1 M8+ annually, far more common), and with under eight months left, the brief window further suppresses odds absent precursors. Realistic scenarios shifting sentiment include abrupt full rupture of a locked subduction zone like Cascadia or southern Chile, though current USGS monitoring reveals no anomalous strain or foreshock clusters; watch for quarterly hazard updates.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
거래량
$189,830종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The extreme rarity of magnitude 9.0+ earthquakes, as documented in the USGS global catalog with only five such events since 1900—1960 Chile (9.5), 1964 Alaska (9.2), 1952 Kamchatka (9.0), 2004 Sumatra (9.1–9.3), and 2011 Tōhoku (9.0–9.1)—underpins the 95.9% market-implied probability for "No" before 2027. Averaging fewer than one per 25 years worldwide, none has occurred in 15 years amid steady seismic rates (USGS reports ~1 M8+ annually, far more common), and with under eight months left, the brief window further suppresses odds absent precursors. Realistic scenarios shifting sentiment include abrupt full rupture of a locked subduction zone like Cascadia or southern Chile, though current USGS monitoring reveals no anomalous strain or foreshock clusters; watch for quarterly hazard updates.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
자주 묻는 질문