As of mid-May 2026, SpaceX's Falcon 9 launch cadence exceeds 12 missions per month, with over 50 orbital attempts completed from pads at Cape Canaveral, Vandenberg, and Starbase—driven by rapid booster reusability (many on 20+ flights) and high-volume Starlink V3 deployments of 20-23 satellites per ride. This operational tempo, boasting near-100% success rates, underpins trader consensus favoring 140-179 total launches, as implied probabilities cluster tightly around 150-170 amid steady demand from commercial and national security payloads. The 140-159 bin leads due to potential pad turnaround limits and supply chain constraints on Starlink production, while 160+ hinges on Starship Version 3 scaling (FAA-approved for 44 flights/year), with its May debut test and orbital refueling trials as key differentiators; fresh model runs and license updates could shift odds further.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트2026년에 출시되는 SpaceX는 몇 개입니까?
2026년에 출시되는 SpaceX는 몇 개입니까?
140~159 36.5%
160-179 30%
180-199 14.0%
120~139 5.0%
$301,900 거래량
$301,900 거래량
100 미만
1%
100~119
1%
120~139
5%
140~159
37%
160-179
30%
180-199
14%
200회 이상
5%
140~159 36.5%
160-179 30%
180-199 14.0%
120~139 5.0%
$301,900 거래량
$301,900 거래량
100 미만
1%
100~119
1%
120~139
5%
140~159
37%
160-179
30%
180-199
14%
200회 이상
5%
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
마켓 개설일: Jan 16, 2026, 12:42 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...As of mid-May 2026, SpaceX's Falcon 9 launch cadence exceeds 12 missions per month, with over 50 orbital attempts completed from pads at Cape Canaveral, Vandenberg, and Starbase—driven by rapid booster reusability (many on 20+ flights) and high-volume Starlink V3 deployments of 20-23 satellites per ride. This operational tempo, boasting near-100% success rates, underpins trader consensus favoring 140-179 total launches, as implied probabilities cluster tightly around 150-170 amid steady demand from commercial and national security payloads. The 140-159 bin leads due to potential pad turnaround limits and supply chain constraints on Starlink production, while 160+ hinges on Starship Version 3 scaling (FAA-approved for 44 flights/year), with its May debut test and orbital refueling trials as key differentiators; fresh model runs and license updates could shift odds further.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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