The strong market-implied odds favoring “No” for Pluto’s reclassification as a planet by June 30 rest on the International Astronomical Union’s 2006 definition, which requires a body to orbit the Sun, reach hydrostatic equilibrium, and clear its orbital neighborhood of other objects—a criterion Pluto has never satisfied. Ongoing planetary science data from New Horizons and ground-based surveys continue to confirm Pluto’s status as a dwarf planet within the Kuiper Belt, with no IAU resolutions or major dynamical discoveries proposed that would alter this framework. Although an unexpected IAU vote or breakthrough orbital-clearing evidence could theoretically intervene, such events are statistically remote given established consensus and the limited time remaining before the market resolves.