Andy Burnham’s pursuit of a parliamentary return via the Makerfield by-election remains the dominant factor shaping trader expectations that he will stay in office as Greater Manchester mayor through May 31. Labour’s National Executive Committee cleared him for selection on May 15, following MP Josh Simons’ resignation announcement, yet the formal candidate confirmation, by-election writ, and polling date lie weeks ahead. No resignation from the mayoralty has been issued, and UK rules prevent simultaneous service as MP and combined-authority mayor, meaning any departure would follow successful election rather than precede it. With the timeline extending well beyond the market’s cutoff and no alternative trigger for an immediate exit, the 92 percent “No” price reflects broad consensus that structural and procedural realities will keep Burnham in post for the remainder of May.