Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no Apple Vision Pro 2 release before 2027, with 94% implied probability, reflecting disappointing sales of the original mixed reality headset—under 500,000 units shipped in over two years—and Apple's strategic pivot toward maturing the visionOS software ecosystem before next-gen hardware. Recent reports from Bloomberg's Mark Gurman (May 2026) indicate the successor is at least two years away, aligning with Ming-Chi Kuo's roadmap delaying high-end Vision Pro updates to 2027 amid canceled cheaper variants and team reallocations. Supply chain silence on mass production further solidifies this view. Realistic challenges include an unexpected WWDC 2026 hardware tease or accelerated M5 chip integration, though Apple's typical 2-3 year cycles for spatial computing products make a late-2026 launch improbable.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
신규
2026.12.31
신규
신규
2026.12.31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no Apple Vision Pro 2 release before 2027, with 94% implied probability, reflecting disappointing sales of the original mixed reality headset—under 500,000 units shipped in over two years—and Apple's strategic pivot toward maturing the visionOS software ecosystem before next-gen hardware. Recent reports from Bloomberg's Mark Gurman (May 2026) indicate the successor is at least two years away, aligning with Ming-Chi Kuo's roadmap delaying high-end Vision Pro updates to 2027 amid canceled cheaper variants and team reallocations. Supply chain silence on mass production further solidifies this view. Realistic challenges include an unexpected WWDC 2026 hardware tease or accelerated M5 chip integration, though Apple's typical 2-3 year cycles for spatial computing products make a late-2026 launch improbable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
마켓 개설일: Dec 12, 2025, 5:54 PM ET
거래량
$4,466종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Dec 12, 2025, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no Apple Vision Pro 2 release before 2027, with 94% implied probability, reflecting disappointing sales of the original mixed reality headset—under 500,000 units shipped in over two years—and Apple's strategic pivot toward maturing the visionOS software ecosystem before next-gen hardware. Recent reports from Bloomberg's Mark Gurman (May 2026) indicate the successor is at least two years away, aligning with Ming-Chi Kuo's roadmap delaying high-end Vision Pro updates to 2027 amid canceled cheaper variants and team reallocations. Supply chain silence on mass production further solidifies this view. Realistic challenges include an unexpected WWDC 2026 hardware tease or accelerated M5 chip integration, though Apple's typical 2-3 year cycles for spatial computing products make a late-2026 launch improbable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
거래량
$4,466종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Dec 12, 2025, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no Apple Vision Pro 2 release before 2027, with 94% implied probability, reflecting disappointing sales of the original mixed reality headset—under 500,000 units shipped in over two years—and Apple's strategic pivot toward maturing the visionOS software ecosystem before next-gen hardware. Recent reports from Bloomberg's Mark Gurman (May 2026) indicate the successor is at least two years away, aligning with Ming-Chi Kuo's roadmap delaying high-end Vision Pro updates to 2027 amid canceled cheaper variants and team reallocations. Supply chain silence on mass production further solidifies this view. Realistic challenges include an unexpected WWDC 2026 hardware tease or accelerated M5 chip integration, though Apple's typical 2-3 year cycles for spatial computing products make a late-2026 launch improbable.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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