Recent Bank of Japan communications and a May 2026 Reuters poll of economists, with 65% forecasting a move to the 1.00% policy rate by end-June, have positioned a 25 basis point hike as the dominant outcome in trader pricing. The April 27-28 meeting’s 6-3 vote to hold at 0.75%, combined with upgraded fiscal 2026 core inflation projections near 2.8% and persistent yen weakness around USD/JPY 157 amid Middle East energy shocks, reinforced expectations for further monetary policy normalization. Market-implied odds reflect this hawkish tilt while assigning only modest probability to no change, underscoring uncertainty around growth revisions and potential last-minute data or currency interventions ahead of the June 15-16 decision.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트25bp 인상 79.7%
변경 없음 20%
50bp 이상 인상 1.1%
금리 인하 <1%
$115,192 거래량
$115,192 거래량
2026.06.16
금리 인하
1%
변경 없음
20%
25bp 인상
80%
50bp 이상 인상
1%
25bp 인상 79.7%
변경 없음 20%
50bp 이상 인상 1.1%
금리 인하 <1%
$115,192 거래량
$115,192 거래량
2026.06.16
금리 인하
$34,145 거래량
1%
변경 없음
$29,089 거래량
20%
25bp 인상
$27,591 거래량
80%
50bp 이상 인상
$24,367 거래량
1%
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for June is scheduled to be released on June 16, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent Bank of Japan communications and a May 2026 Reuters poll of economists, with 65% forecasting a move to the 1.00% policy rate by end-June, have positioned a 25 basis point hike as the dominant outcome in trader pricing. The April 27-28 meeting’s 6-3 vote to hold at 0.75%, combined with upgraded fiscal 2026 core inflation projections near 2.8% and persistent yen weakness around USD/JPY 157 amid Middle East energy shocks, reinforced expectations for further monetary policy normalization. Market-implied odds reflect this hawkish tilt while assigning only modest probability to no change, underscoring uncertainty around growth revisions and potential last-minute data or currency interventions ahead of the June 15-16 decision.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for June is scheduled to be released on June 16, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
마켓 개설일: Mar 19, 2026, 7:12 PM ET
거래량
$115,192종료일
2026.06.16마켓 개설일
Mar 19, 2026, 7:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for June is scheduled to be released on June 16, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent Bank of Japan communications and a May 2026 Reuters poll of economists, with 65% forecasting a move to the 1.00% policy rate by end-June, have positioned a 25 basis point hike as the dominant outcome in trader pricing. The April 27-28 meeting’s 6-3 vote to hold at 0.75%, combined with upgraded fiscal 2026 core inflation projections near 2.8% and persistent yen weakness around USD/JPY 157 amid Middle East energy shocks, reinforced expectations for further monetary policy normalization. Market-implied odds reflect this hawkish tilt while assigning only modest probability to no change, underscoring uncertainty around growth revisions and potential last-minute data or currency interventions ahead of the June 15-16 decision.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for June is scheduled to be released on June 16, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
거래량
$115,192종료일
2026.06.16마켓 개설일
Mar 19, 2026, 7:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Bank of Japan communications and a May 2026 Reuters poll of economists, with 65% forecasting a move to the 1.00% policy rate by end-June, have positioned a 25 basis point hike as the dominant outcome in trader pricing. The April 27-28 meeting’s 6-3 vote to hold at 0.75%, combined with upgraded fiscal 2026 core inflation projections near 2.8% and persistent yen weakness around USD/JPY 157 amid Middle East energy shocks, reinforced expectations for further monetary policy normalization. Market-implied odds reflect this hawkish tilt while assigning only modest probability to no change, underscoring uncertainty around growth revisions and potential last-minute data or currency interventions ahead of the June 15-16 decision.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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