Traders are pricing the 0.3–0.5% quarter-over-quarter band as the most likely outcome for Japan’s preliminary Q1 2026 real GDP, reflecting consensus economist forecasts of 0.4–0.5% growth that would mark a second straight quarter of expansion. Firm export recovery, supported by semiconductor demand and easing tariff effects, alongside resilient private consumption and capital expenditure, underpin the moderate positive reading expected from the Cabinet Office release on May 19. Market-implied odds also assign meaningful probability to 0.6–1.1% ranges, consistent with historical volatility in Japan’s GDP prints and potential upside from public investment. The data will provide the first clear read on whether Middle East-related energy pressures have begun to weigh on domestic demand.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트0.9–1.1% 15.0%
1.2%+ 4.3%
-0.3– -0.1% 4.1%
0.0–0.2% 1.7%
신규
신규
2026.05.19
≤-0.4%
1%
-0.3– -0.1%
4%
0.0–0.2%
2%
0.3–0.5%
53%
0.6–0.8%
32%
0.9–1.1%
34%
1.2%+
4%
0.9–1.1% 15.0%
1.2%+ 4.3%
-0.3– -0.1% 4.1%
0.0–0.2% 1.7%
신규
신규
2026.05.19
≤-0.4%
$1,057 거래량
1%
-0.3– -0.1%
$650 거래량
4%
0.0–0.2%
$1,000 거래량
2%
0.3–0.5%
$797 거래량
53%
0.6–0.8%
$447 거래량
32%
0.9–1.1%
$683 거래량
34%
1.2%+
$2,843 거래량
4%
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlTraders are pricing the 0.3–0.5% quarter-over-quarter band as the most likely outcome for Japan’s preliminary Q1 2026 real GDP, reflecting consensus economist forecasts of 0.4–0.5% growth that would mark a second straight quarter of expansion. Firm export recovery, supported by semiconductor demand and easing tariff effects, alongside resilient private consumption and capital expenditure, underpin the moderate positive reading expected from the Cabinet Office release on May 19. Market-implied odds also assign meaningful probability to 0.6–1.1% ranges, consistent with historical volatility in Japan’s GDP prints and potential upside from public investment. The data will provide the first clear read on whether Middle East-related energy pressures have begun to weigh on domestic demand.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
마켓 개설일: Feb 17, 2026, 5:48 PM ET
거래량
$7,477종료일
2026.05.19마켓 개설일
Feb 17, 2026, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlTraders are pricing the 0.3–0.5% quarter-over-quarter band as the most likely outcome for Japan’s preliminary Q1 2026 real GDP, reflecting consensus economist forecasts of 0.4–0.5% growth that would mark a second straight quarter of expansion. Firm export recovery, supported by semiconductor demand and easing tariff effects, alongside resilient private consumption and capital expenditure, underpin the moderate positive reading expected from the Cabinet Office release on May 19. Market-implied odds also assign meaningful probability to 0.6–1.1% ranges, consistent with historical volatility in Japan’s GDP prints and potential upside from public investment. The data will provide the first clear read on whether Middle East-related energy pressures have begun to weigh on domestic demand.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
거래량
$7,477종료일
2026.05.19마켓 개설일
Feb 17, 2026, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Traders are pricing the 0.3–0.5% quarter-over-quarter band as the most likely outcome for Japan’s preliminary Q1 2026 real GDP, reflecting consensus economist forecasts of 0.4–0.5% growth that would mark a second straight quarter of expansion. Firm export recovery, supported by semiconductor demand and easing tariff effects, alongside resilient private consumption and capital expenditure, underpin the moderate positive reading expected from the Cabinet Office release on May 19. Market-implied odds also assign meaningful probability to 0.6–1.1% ranges, consistent with historical volatility in Japan’s GDP prints and potential upside from public investment. The data will provide the first clear read on whether Middle East-related energy pressures have begun to weigh on domestic demand.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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