Tight monetary policy, with Brazil's Selic rate held near 15%—the highest level in nearly two decades—has restrained credit expansion and domestic demand, anchoring trader consensus around moderate Q1 2026 GDP growth. Resilient high-frequency indicators, including February IBC-Br gains, record March retail sales, and April PMI readings above 52, have lifted implied odds for the 1.9%–2.2% band to 52.4%, ahead of the 2.3%–2.6% range at 28.8%. Full-year consensus forecasts from the IMF and Central Bank Focus hover near 1.7%–1.9%, consistent with base effects from softer prior quarters, while low unemployment at 6.1% and April inflation near 4.4% support this positioning. The IBGE release on May 29 remains the decisive catalyst for these market-implied probabilities.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트1.9%–2.2% 53.4%
1.5%–1.8% 12%
2.3%–2.6% 8.8%
≥2.7% 4.7%
$20,737 거래량
$20,737 거래량
2026.05.29
0.7% 미만
2%
0.7%–1.0%
2%
1.1%–1.4%
3%
1.5%–1.8%
30%
1.9%–2.2%
52%
2.3%–2.6%
30%
≥2.7%
10%
1.9%–2.2% 53.4%
1.5%–1.8% 12%
2.3%–2.6% 8.8%
≥2.7% 4.7%
$20,737 거래량
$20,737 거래량
2026.05.29
0.7% 미만
$14,389 거래량
2%
0.7%–1.0%
$660 거래량
2%
1.1%–1.4%
$506 거래량
3%
1.5%–1.8%
$1,040 거래량
30%
1.9%–2.2%
$1,631 거래량
52%
2.3%–2.6%
$684 거래량
30%
≥2.7%
$1,827 거래량
10%
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlTight monetary policy, with Brazil's Selic rate held near 15%—the highest level in nearly two decades—has restrained credit expansion and domestic demand, anchoring trader consensus around moderate Q1 2026 GDP growth. Resilient high-frequency indicators, including February IBC-Br gains, record March retail sales, and April PMI readings above 52, have lifted implied odds for the 1.9%–2.2% band to 52.4%, ahead of the 2.3%–2.6% range at 28.8%. Full-year consensus forecasts from the IMF and Central Bank Focus hover near 1.7%–1.9%, consistent with base effects from softer prior quarters, while low unemployment at 6.1% and April inflation near 4.4% support this positioning. The IBGE release on May 29 remains the decisive catalyst for these market-implied probabilities.
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
마켓 개설일: Mar 23, 2026, 7:16 PM ET
거래량
$20,737종료일
2026.05.29마켓 개설일
Mar 23, 2026, 7:16 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlTight monetary policy, with Brazil's Selic rate held near 15%—the highest level in nearly two decades—has restrained credit expansion and domestic demand, anchoring trader consensus around moderate Q1 2026 GDP growth. Resilient high-frequency indicators, including February IBC-Br gains, record March retail sales, and April PMI readings above 52, have lifted implied odds for the 1.9%–2.2% band to 52.4%, ahead of the 2.3%–2.6% range at 28.8%. Full-year consensus forecasts from the IMF and Central Bank Focus hover near 1.7%–1.9%, consistent with base effects from softer prior quarters, while low unemployment at 6.1% and April inflation near 4.4% support this positioning. The IBGE release on May 29 remains the decisive catalyst for these market-implied probabilities.
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
거래량
$20,737종료일
2026.05.29마켓 개설일
Mar 23, 2026, 7:16 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Tight monetary policy, with Brazil's Selic rate held near 15%—the highest level in nearly two decades—has restrained credit expansion and domestic demand, anchoring trader consensus around moderate Q1 2026 GDP growth. Resilient high-frequency indicators, including February IBC-Br gains, record March retail sales, and April PMI readings above 52, have lifted implied odds for the 1.9%–2.2% band to 52.4%, ahead of the 2.3%–2.6% range at 28.8%. Full-year consensus forecasts from the IMF and Central Bank Focus hover near 1.7%–1.9%, consistent with base effects from softer prior quarters, while low unemployment at 6.1% and April inflation near 4.4% support this positioning. The IBGE release on May 29 remains the decisive catalyst for these market-implied probabilities.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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