Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a tight contest for Q2 2026 US GDP growth, with 2.0–2.5% holding a slim 25% implied probability ahead of 1.5–2.0% at 21.5%, reflecting balanced risks after Q1's 2.0% rebound. Atlanta Fed GDPNow remains steady at 3.7% as of May 8, buoyed by robust private investment and personal consumption proxies, yet traders discount upside amid April's soft nonfarm payrolls (+115,000) signaling labor market cooling and hotter-than-expected CPI (3.8% YoY). Sticky inflation dims Fed rate-cut hopes, potentially curbing spending, while upcoming April retail sales, ISM surveys, and Q1 GDP second estimate on May 28 will be pivotal swing factors.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트2.0–2.5% 24%
2.5–3.0% 20%
1.5–2.0% 17%
3.0–3.5% 16%
신규
신규
2026.07.30
<1.0%
12%
1.0–1.5%
10%
1.5–2.0%
17%
2.0–2.5%
24%
2.5–3.0%
20%
3.0–3.5%
16%
≥3.5%
7%
2.0–2.5% 24%
2.5–3.0% 20%
1.5–2.0% 17%
3.0–3.5% 16%
신규
신규
2026.07.30
<1.0%
$576 거래량
12%
1.0–1.5%
$342 거래량
10%
1.5–2.0%
$209 거래량
17%
2.0–2.5%
$526 거래량
24%
2.5–3.0%
$410 거래량
20%
3.0–3.5%
$655 거래량
16%
≥3.5%
$392 거래량
7%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a tight contest for Q2 2026 US GDP growth, with 2.0–2.5% holding a slim 25% implied probability ahead of 1.5–2.0% at 21.5%, reflecting balanced risks after Q1's 2.0% rebound. Atlanta Fed GDPNow remains steady at 3.7% as of May 8, buoyed by robust private investment and personal consumption proxies, yet traders discount upside amid April's soft nonfarm payrolls (+115,000) signaling labor market cooling and hotter-than-expected CPI (3.8% YoY). Sticky inflation dims Fed rate-cut hopes, potentially curbing spending, while upcoming April retail sales, ISM surveys, and Q1 GDP second estimate on May 28 will be pivotal swing factors.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
마켓 개설일: Apr 30, 2026, 2:25 PM ET
거래량
$3,111종료일
2026.07.30마켓 개설일
Apr 30, 2026, 2:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a tight contest for Q2 2026 US GDP growth, with 2.0–2.5% holding a slim 25% implied probability ahead of 1.5–2.0% at 21.5%, reflecting balanced risks after Q1's 2.0% rebound. Atlanta Fed GDPNow remains steady at 3.7% as of May 8, buoyed by robust private investment and personal consumption proxies, yet traders discount upside amid April's soft nonfarm payrolls (+115,000) signaling labor market cooling and hotter-than-expected CPI (3.8% YoY). Sticky inflation dims Fed rate-cut hopes, potentially curbing spending, while upcoming April retail sales, ISM surveys, and Q1 GDP second estimate on May 28 will be pivotal swing factors.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
거래량
$3,111종료일
2026.07.30마켓 개설일
Apr 30, 2026, 2:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a tight contest for Q2 2026 US GDP growth, with 2.0–2.5% holding a slim 25% implied probability ahead of 1.5–2.0% at 21.5%, reflecting balanced risks after Q1's 2.0% rebound. Atlanta Fed GDPNow remains steady at 3.7% as of May 8, buoyed by robust private investment and personal consumption proxies, yet traders discount upside amid April's soft nonfarm payrolls (+115,000) signaling labor market cooling and hotter-than-expected CPI (3.8% YoY). Sticky inflation dims Fed rate-cut hopes, potentially curbing spending, while upcoming April retail sales, ISM surveys, and Q1 GDP second estimate on May 28 will be pivotal swing factors.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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