Polymarket traders price a 90.5% implied probability against negative U.S. GDP growth in 2026, reflecting strong consensus on continued expansion driven by the Bureau of Economic Analysis's April 30 advance estimate of 2.0% annualized real GDP growth in Q1, rebounding from Q4 2025's 0.5% pace amid resilient consumer spending, surging business investment, and export gains despite Middle East tensions. Forecasts from the Congressional Budget Office (2.2%) and Vanguard (2.3%) reinforce this outlook, with Atlanta Fed GDPNow signaling 3.7% for Q2. Trader sentiment underscores a soft landing, backed by real capital at stake. Realistic challenges include escalating geopolitical risks elevating energy prices, labor market softening with unemployment projected to 4.6%, or persistent inflation delaying Federal Reserve rate cuts, potentially tipping into contraction if Q2-Q4 data disappoints.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$26,380 거래량
$26,380 거래량
2027.01.29
예
$26,380 거래량
$26,380 거래량
2027.01.29
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Polymarket traders price a 90.5% implied probability against negative U.S. GDP growth in 2026, reflecting strong consensus on continued expansion driven by the Bureau of Economic Analysis's April 30 advance estimate of 2.0% annualized real GDP growth in Q1, rebounding from Q4 2025's 0.5% pace amid resilient consumer spending, surging business investment, and export gains despite Middle East tensions. Forecasts from the Congressional Budget Office (2.2%) and Vanguard (2.3%) reinforce this outlook, with Atlanta Fed GDPNow signaling 3.7% for Q2. Trader sentiment underscores a soft landing, backed by real capital at stake. Realistic challenges include escalating geopolitical risks elevating energy prices, labor market softening with unemployment projected to 4.6%, or persistent inflation delaying Federal Reserve rate cuts, potentially tipping into contraction if Q2-Q4 data disappoints.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
마켓 개설일: Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
거래량
$26,380종료일
2027.01.29마켓 개설일
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Polymarket traders price a 90.5% implied probability against negative U.S. GDP growth in 2026, reflecting strong consensus on continued expansion driven by the Bureau of Economic Analysis's April 30 advance estimate of 2.0% annualized real GDP growth in Q1, rebounding from Q4 2025's 0.5% pace amid resilient consumer spending, surging business investment, and export gains despite Middle East tensions. Forecasts from the Congressional Budget Office (2.2%) and Vanguard (2.3%) reinforce this outlook, with Atlanta Fed GDPNow signaling 3.7% for Q2. Trader sentiment underscores a soft landing, backed by real capital at stake. Realistic challenges include escalating geopolitical risks elevating energy prices, labor market softening with unemployment projected to 4.6%, or persistent inflation delaying Federal Reserve rate cuts, potentially tipping into contraction if Q2-Q4 data disappoints.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
거래량
$26,380종료일
2027.01.29마켓 개설일
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Polymarket traders price a 90.5% implied probability against negative U.S. GDP growth in 2026, reflecting strong consensus on continued expansion driven by the Bureau of Economic Analysis's April 30 advance estimate of 2.0% annualized real GDP growth in Q1, rebounding from Q4 2025's 0.5% pace amid resilient consumer spending, surging business investment, and export gains despite Middle East tensions. Forecasts from the Congressional Budget Office (2.2%) and Vanguard (2.3%) reinforce this outlook, with Atlanta Fed GDPNow signaling 3.7% for Q2. Trader sentiment underscores a soft landing, backed by real capital at stake. Realistic challenges include escalating geopolitical risks elevating energy prices, labor market softening with unemployment projected to 4.6%, or persistent inflation delaying Federal Reserve rate cuts, potentially tipping into contraction if Q2-Q4 data disappoints.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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