The absence of any active CDC Level 4 Travel Health Notices supports the 77.5% market-implied probability against issuance by December 31, 2026. Current advisories remain limited to Level 2 for widespread polio circulation across 32 countries and Level 1 for dengue in 16 others, based on confirmed case surveillance from CDC and WHO data. The recent Andes virus hantavirus cluster on a cruise ship triggered only a targeted Health Alert Network notice and low-level emergency activation, with no evidence of sustained domestic transmission or extreme-risk thresholds that would justify “Avoid All Travel” status. Historical patterns show Level 4 notices require novel pathogens or uncontrolled epidemics exceeding current epidemiological indicators and model consensus, none of which appear imminent before year-end. Ongoing monitoring of respiratory and vector-borne threats will determine if any rapid escalation occurs.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$71,475 거래량
$71,475 거래량
예
$71,475 거래량
$71,475 거래량
A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
마켓 개설일: Jan 19, 2026, 3:15 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...The absence of any active CDC Level 4 Travel Health Notices supports the 77.5% market-implied probability against issuance by December 31, 2026. Current advisories remain limited to Level 2 for widespread polio circulation across 32 countries and Level 1 for dengue in 16 others, based on confirmed case surveillance from CDC and WHO data. The recent Andes virus hantavirus cluster on a cruise ship triggered only a targeted Health Alert Network notice and low-level emergency activation, with no evidence of sustained domestic transmission or extreme-risk thresholds that would justify “Avoid All Travel” status. Historical patterns show Level 4 notices require novel pathogens or uncontrolled epidemics exceeding current epidemiological indicators and model consensus, none of which appear imminent before year-end. Ongoing monitoring of respiratory and vector-borne threats will determine if any rapid escalation occurs.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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