On June 9, 2026, Anthropic released the AI model “Claude Fable 5” to the general public. On June 12, 2026, Anthropic suspended access to the specified model in response to a directive from the US government.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic restores access to “Claude Fable 5,” also known as “Claude Mythos,” or a model confirmed to be the same model to US customers by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying model must be named "Claude Fable 5” or “Claude Mythos” (e.g., Claude Mythos 1, Claude Mythos 5, Claude Mythos X, would count), or be confirmed by Anthropic or by a consensus of credible reporting to be the same model as released by Anthropic on June 9, 2026.
Products labeled as Claude Haiku, Sonnet, and Opus 4.7/5.0 or similar will not count for this market's resolution unless they are confirmed to be the same model released by Anthropic on June 9, 2026.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be restored to public accessibility within the United States, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The restoration must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to US customers. If an otherwise qualifying restoration restricts access to certain customers based on nationality, whether geographically inside or outside of the US, that restoration will still qualify.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.US government export controls citing national security concerns triggered Anthropic's abrupt global suspension of Claude Fable 5, its most advanced large language model with enhanced agentic capabilities, just days after the June 9 public launch. The directive targeted foreign nationals, but Anthropic disabled access for all users—including US customers—because real-time filtering proved impractical, routing queries to weaker models like Opus 4.8 instead. Ongoing high-level talks with the White House reflect unresolved tensions over potential guardrail bypasses and model power, while the company publicly calls the move a likely misunderstanding and works toward restoration. Traders are watching for any policy carve-out or technical fix that could quickly reopen US access amid competitive pressure from other frontier AI labs.
On June 9, 2026, Anthropic released the AI model “Claude Fable 5” to the general public. On June 12, 2026, Anthropic suspended access to the specified model in response to a directive from the US government.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic restores access to “Claude Fable 5,” also known as “Claude Mythos,” or a model confirmed to be the same model to US customers by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying model must be named "Claude Fable 5” or “Claude Mythos” (e.g., Claude Mythos 1, Claude Mythos 5, Claude Mythos X, would count), or be confirmed by Anthropic or by a consensus of credible reporting to be the same model as released by Anthropic on June 9, 2026.
Products labeled as Claude Haiku, Sonnet, and Opus 4.7/5.0 or similar will not count for this market's resolution unless they are confirmed to be the same model released by Anthropic on June 9, 2026.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be restored to public accessibility within the United States, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The restoration must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to US customers. If an otherwise qualifying restoration restricts access to certain customers based on nationality, whether geographically inside or outside of the US, that restoration will still qualify.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
On June 9, 2026, Anthropic released the AI model “Claude Fable 5” to the general public. On June 12, 2026, Anthropic suspended access to the specified model in response to a directive from the US government.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic restores access to “Claude Fable 5,” also known as “Claude Mythos,” or a model confirmed to be the same model to US customers by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying model must be named "Claude Fable 5” or “Claude Mythos” (e.g., Claude Mythos 1, Claude Mythos 5, Claude Mythos X, would count), or be confirmed by Anthropic or by a consensus of credible reporting to be the same model as released by Anthropic on June 9, 2026.
Products labeled as Claude Haiku, Sonnet, and Opus 4.7/5.0 or similar will not count for this market's resolution unless they are confirmed to be the same model released by Anthropic on June 9, 2026.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be restored to public accessibility within the United States, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The restoration must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to US customers. If an otherwise qualifying restoration restricts access to certain customers based on nationality, whether geographically inside or outside of the US, that restoration will still qualify.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
결과 제안됨: 아니오
이의 제기 기간
최종
US government export controls citing national security concerns triggered Anthropic's abrupt global suspension of Claude Fable 5, its most advanced large language model with enhanced agentic capabilities, just days after the June 9 public launch. The directive targeted foreign nationals, but Anthropic disabled access for all users—including US customers—because real-time filtering proved impractical, routing queries to weaker models like Opus 4.8 instead. Ongoing high-level talks with the White House reflect unresolved tensions over potential guardrail bypasses and model power, while the company publicly calls the move a likely misunderstanding and works toward restoration. Traders are watching for any policy carve-out or technical fix that could quickly reopen US access amid competitive pressure from other frontier AI labs.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
Jun 18 2026
No restoration of Claude Fable 5 access announced as of June 18, 2026
June 18 plunges to 0%43%
Despite ongoing negotiations and public pressure, Anthropic has not announced any restoration of access to Claude Fable 5 or Mythos 5 for US customers or others. The models remain disabled globally due to the US government export control directive.
Jun 18 2026
Anthropic confirms Claude Fable 5 restoration plans with credit-based access starting June 23
July 1 surges to 74%34%
Anthropic confirmed that Claude Fable 5 will transition to a credit-based access model starting June 23, after the free access window ends on June 22. The company intends to restore Fable 5 as a standard feature of subscription plans once sufficient compute capacity is available, indicating a pathway for US customers to regain public access.
Jun 16 2026
Anthropic executive says Fable 5 may return "in the coming days"
June 19 plunges to 10%47%
At Anthropic's Seoul office launch, Managing Director Chris Ciauri reportedly said the suspended Fable 5 / Mythos 5 models could become available again "in the coming days." This unofficial comment provided some hope but no firm restoration date, contributing to market volatility.
Jun 16 2026
Rumor claims Claude Fable 5 access will be restored within 48 hours
June 19 plunges to 10%47%
A third-party account called BridgeMind posted on social media that Claude Fable 5 access would be restored within 48 hours. This rumor spread widely, briefly boosting market prices despite lacking official confirmation from Anthropic.
Jun 15 2026
Anthropic senior engineers meet US Commerce Department to negotiate restoration of Claude Fable 5 access
June 19 surges to 57%17%
Anthropic dispatched senior technical staff to Washington for face-to-face talks with Commerce Department officials, aiming to resolve the export control dispute and restore access to Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5. The meeting was the first in-person discussion since the directive was issued.
Jun 14 2026
Cybersecurity leaders urge US government to lift restrictions on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5
June 19 plunges to 0%43%
Over 150 cybersecurity executives and technical leaders signed an open letter to the US government, arguing that the export control directive removing access to Anthropic's most powerful AI models handicaps defenders without effectively slowing attackers. They called for the restrictions to be lifted to restore advanced AI tools for cybersecurity defense.
Jun 14 2026
Anthropic sends senior engineers to Washington seeking to lift Fable 5 export ban
July 1 surges to 73%29%
Anthropic dispatched senior technical staff to meet with US government officials in an effort to negotiate lifting the export restrictions that forced the shutdown of Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5 worldwide. This indicated ongoing efforts to restore access but no public announcement of restoration was made within the analysis window.
Jun 13 2026
Anthropic Confirms Global Suspension of Fable 5 and Mythos 5 to Comply with US Directive
June 19 plunges to 12%45%
Anthropic officially took down access to both models globally on June 13, 2026, to comply with the export control directive, while publicly disputing the severity of the alleged jailbreak.
Jun 13 2026
Anthropic Promises to Work on Restoring Access to Suspended Models
July 1 surges to 77%31%
Anthropic stated it is actively working to resolve the regulatory concerns and restore access to Fable 5 and Mythos 5 as soon as possible, shifting market expectations to later dates.
Jun 13 2026
Anthropic confirms suspension of Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5 access globally
July 1 surges to 72%36%
Following the US government directive, Anthropic confirmed that access to Claude Fable 5 and Claude Mythos 5 was suspended worldwide, including for US customers, with no immediate timeline for restoration. Other Claude models remained available. This confirmed that Claude Fable 5 was not restored to US customers by the market's resolution date.
Jun 13 2026
Anthropic announces plans to restore Claude Fable 5 access to US customers
July 1 surges to 77%31%
Following the government directive, Anthropic publicly stated it is working to restore access to Claude Fable 5 for US customers and promised more details within 24 hours. This announcement led to a rebound in market prices as investors anticipated a resolution allowing US users to regain access.
Jun 13 2026
Anthropic announces June 23 Fable 5 restoration plan
June 26 jumps to 14%8%
Anthropic stated it plans to restore Claude Fable 5 to subscription plans after June 22, with full plan inclusion expected once capacity allows, signaling potential future accessibility.
Jun 13 2026
Anthropic states US government directive is a misunderstanding and works to restore access
July 1 surges to 77%31%
Anthropic publicly disputed the US government's basis for the export control directive, calling it a misunderstanding and emphasizing the narrow, non-universal nature of the alleged jailbreak. The company committed to working with officials to restore access to Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5 as soon as possible, providing some market support.
Jun 13 2026
Anthropic publicly confirms suspension of Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5 access due to US government directive
July 1 dips to 71%1%
Anthropic announced it had suspended access to Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5 following a US government export control directive citing national security concerns. The company stated it was working to restore access as soon as possible but disagreed with the government's assessment that a narrow jailbreak justified the suspension.
On June 9, 2026, Anthropic released the AI model “Claude Fable 5” to the general public. On June 12, 2026, Anthropic suspended access to the specified model in response to a directive from the US government.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic restores access to “Claude Fable 5,” also known as “Claude Mythos,” or a model confirmed to be the same model to US customers by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying model must be named "Claude Fable 5” or “Claude Mythos” (e.g., Claude Mythos 1, Claude Mythos 5, Claude Mythos X, would count), or be confirmed by Anthropic or by a consensus of credible reporting to be the same model as released by Anthropic on June 9, 2026.
Products labeled as Claude Haiku, Sonnet, and Opus 4.7/5.0 or similar will not count for this market's resolution unless they are confirmed to be the same model released by Anthropic on June 9, 2026.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be restored to public accessibility within the United States, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The restoration must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to US customers. If an otherwise qualifying restoration restricts access to certain customers based on nationality, whether geographically inside or outside of the US, that restoration will still qualify.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.US government export controls citing national security concerns triggered Anthropic's abrupt global suspension of Claude Fable 5, its most advanced large language model with enhanced agentic capabilities, just days after the June 9 public launch. The directive targeted foreign nationals, but Anthropic disabled access for all users—including US customers—because real-time filtering proved impractical, routing queries to weaker models like Opus 4.8 instead. Ongoing high-level talks with the White House reflect unresolved tensions over potential guardrail bypasses and model power, while the company publicly calls the move a likely misunderstanding and works toward restoration. Traders are watching for any policy carve-out or technical fix that could quickly reopen US access amid competitive pressure from other frontier AI labs.
On June 9, 2026, Anthropic released the AI model “Claude Fable 5” to the general public. On June 12, 2026, Anthropic suspended access to the specified model in response to a directive from the US government.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic restores access to “Claude Fable 5,” also known as “Claude Mythos,” or a model confirmed to be the same model to US customers by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying model must be named "Claude Fable 5” or “Claude Mythos” (e.g., Claude Mythos 1, Claude Mythos 5, Claude Mythos X, would count), or be confirmed by Anthropic or by a consensus of credible reporting to be the same model as released by Anthropic on June 9, 2026.
Products labeled as Claude Haiku, Sonnet, and Opus 4.7/5.0 or similar will not count for this market's resolution unless they are confirmed to be the same model released by Anthropic on June 9, 2026.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be restored to public accessibility within the United States, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The restoration must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to US customers. If an otherwise qualifying restoration restricts access to certain customers based on nationality, whether geographically inside or outside of the US, that restoration will still qualify.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
On June 9, 2026, Anthropic released the AI model “Claude Fable 5” to the general public. On June 12, 2026, Anthropic suspended access to the specified model in response to a directive from the US government.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic restores access to “Claude Fable 5,” also known as “Claude Mythos,” or a model confirmed to be the same model to US customers by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying model must be named "Claude Fable 5” or “Claude Mythos” (e.g., Claude Mythos 1, Claude Mythos 5, Claude Mythos X, would count), or be confirmed by Anthropic or by a consensus of credible reporting to be the same model as released by Anthropic on June 9, 2026.
Products labeled as Claude Haiku, Sonnet, and Opus 4.7/5.0 or similar will not count for this market's resolution unless they are confirmed to be the same model released by Anthropic on June 9, 2026.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be restored to public accessibility within the United States, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The restoration must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to US customers. If an otherwise qualifying restoration restricts access to certain customers based on nationality, whether geographically inside or outside of the US, that restoration will still qualify.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
결과 제안됨: 아니오
이의 제기 기간
최종
US government export controls citing national security concerns triggered Anthropic's abrupt global suspension of Claude Fable 5, its most advanced large language model with enhanced agentic capabilities, just days after the June 9 public launch. The directive targeted foreign nationals, but Anthropic disabled access for all users—including US customers—because real-time filtering proved impractical, routing queries to weaker models like Opus 4.8 instead. Ongoing high-level talks with the White House reflect unresolved tensions over potential guardrail bypasses and model power, while the company publicly calls the move a likely misunderstanding and works toward restoration. Traders are watching for any policy carve-out or technical fix that could quickly reopen US access amid competitive pressure from other frontier AI labs.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
Jun 18 2026
No restoration of Claude Fable 5 access announced as of June 18, 2026
June 18 plunges to 0%43%
Despite ongoing negotiations and public pressure, Anthropic has not announced any restoration of access to Claude Fable 5 or Mythos 5 for US customers or others. The models remain disabled globally due to the US government export control directive.
Jun 18 2026
Anthropic confirms Claude Fable 5 restoration plans with credit-based access starting June 23
July 1 surges to 74%34%
Anthropic confirmed that Claude Fable 5 will transition to a credit-based access model starting June 23, after the free access window ends on June 22. The company intends to restore Fable 5 as a standard feature of subscription plans once sufficient compute capacity is available, indicating a pathway for US customers to regain public access.
Jun 16 2026
Anthropic executive says Fable 5 may return "in the coming days"
June 19 plunges to 10%47%
At Anthropic's Seoul office launch, Managing Director Chris Ciauri reportedly said the suspended Fable 5 / Mythos 5 models could become available again "in the coming days." This unofficial comment provided some hope but no firm restoration date, contributing to market volatility.
Jun 16 2026
Rumor claims Claude Fable 5 access will be restored within 48 hours
June 19 plunges to 10%47%
A third-party account called BridgeMind posted on social media that Claude Fable 5 access would be restored within 48 hours. This rumor spread widely, briefly boosting market prices despite lacking official confirmation from Anthropic.
Jun 15 2026
Anthropic senior engineers meet US Commerce Department to negotiate restoration of Claude Fable 5 access
June 19 surges to 57%17%
Anthropic dispatched senior technical staff to Washington for face-to-face talks with Commerce Department officials, aiming to resolve the export control dispute and restore access to Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5. The meeting was the first in-person discussion since the directive was issued.
Jun 14 2026
Cybersecurity leaders urge US government to lift restrictions on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5
June 19 plunges to 0%43%
Over 150 cybersecurity executives and technical leaders signed an open letter to the US government, arguing that the export control directive removing access to Anthropic's most powerful AI models handicaps defenders without effectively slowing attackers. They called for the restrictions to be lifted to restore advanced AI tools for cybersecurity defense.
Jun 14 2026
Anthropic sends senior engineers to Washington seeking to lift Fable 5 export ban
July 1 surges to 73%29%
Anthropic dispatched senior technical staff to meet with US government officials in an effort to negotiate lifting the export restrictions that forced the shutdown of Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5 worldwide. This indicated ongoing efforts to restore access but no public announcement of restoration was made within the analysis window.
Jun 13 2026
Anthropic Confirms Global Suspension of Fable 5 and Mythos 5 to Comply with US Directive
June 19 plunges to 12%45%
Anthropic officially took down access to both models globally on June 13, 2026, to comply with the export control directive, while publicly disputing the severity of the alleged jailbreak.
Jun 13 2026
Anthropic Promises to Work on Restoring Access to Suspended Models
July 1 surges to 77%31%
Anthropic stated it is actively working to resolve the regulatory concerns and restore access to Fable 5 and Mythos 5 as soon as possible, shifting market expectations to later dates.
Jun 13 2026
Anthropic confirms suspension of Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5 access globally
July 1 surges to 72%36%
Following the US government directive, Anthropic confirmed that access to Claude Fable 5 and Claude Mythos 5 was suspended worldwide, including for US customers, with no immediate timeline for restoration. Other Claude models remained available. This confirmed that Claude Fable 5 was not restored to US customers by the market's resolution date.
Jun 13 2026
Anthropic announces plans to restore Claude Fable 5 access to US customers
July 1 surges to 77%31%
Following the government directive, Anthropic publicly stated it is working to restore access to Claude Fable 5 for US customers and promised more details within 24 hours. This announcement led to a rebound in market prices as investors anticipated a resolution allowing US users to regain access.
Jun 13 2026
Anthropic announces June 23 Fable 5 restoration plan
June 26 jumps to 14%8%
Anthropic stated it plans to restore Claude Fable 5 to subscription plans after June 22, with full plan inclusion expected once capacity allows, signaling potential future accessibility.
Jun 13 2026
Anthropic states US government directive is a misunderstanding and works to restore access
July 1 surges to 77%31%
Anthropic publicly disputed the US government's basis for the export control directive, calling it a misunderstanding and emphasizing the narrow, non-universal nature of the alleged jailbreak. The company committed to working with officials to restore access to Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5 as soon as possible, providing some market support.
Jun 13 2026
Anthropic publicly confirms suspension of Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5 access due to US government directive
July 1 dips to 71%1%
Anthropic announced it had suspended access to Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5 following a US government export control directive citing national security concerns. The company stated it was working to restore access as soon as possible but disagreed with the government's assessment that a narrow jailbreak justified the suspension.
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
자주 묻는 질문
"Claude Fable 5가 미국 고객을 위해 복원되었습니다...?"은 8개의 가능한 결과가 있는 Polymarket의 예측 마켓으로, 트레이더들이 어떤 결과가 발생할지에 따라 주식을 매수 및 매도합니다. 현재 선두 결과는 71%의 "7월 1일"이며, 이어서 57%의 "6월 26일"입니다. 가격은 실시간 크라우드소싱 확률을 반영합니다. 예를 들어 71¢에 거래되는 주식은 마켓이 해당 결과에 71%의 확률을 부여함을 의미합니다. 이 확률은 트레이더들이 새로운 진전과 정보에 반응함에 따라 지속적으로 변화합니다. 정확한 결과의 주식은 마켓 정산 시 각 $1에 교환 가능합니다.
오늘 현재 "Claude Fable 5가 미국 고객을 위해 복원되었습니다...?"은 총 $1.1 million의 거래량을 생성했습니다 마켓이 Jun 13, 2026에 시작된 이후. 이 수준의 거래 활동은 Polymarket 커뮤니티의 강한 참여를 반영하며 현재 확률이 깊은 참가자 풀에 의해 정보에 기반하도록 보장합니다. 이 페이지에서 실시간 가격 변동을 추적하고 모든 결과에 직접 거래할 수 있습니다.
"Claude Fable 5가 미국 고객을 위해 복원되었습니다...?"에서 거래하려면 이 페이지에 나열된 8개의 가용 결과를 탐색하세요. 각 결과에는 마켓의 내재 확률을 나타내는 현재 가격이 표시됩니다. 포지션을 잡으려면 가장 가능성이 높다고 생각하는 결과를 선택하고, 찬성이면 "Yes", 반대이면 "No"를 선택하고, 금액을 입력하고 "거래"를 클릭하세요. 마켓이 정산될 때 선택한 결과가 맞으면 "Yes" 주식은 각 $1을 지급합니다. 틀리면 $0을 지급합니다. 수익을 확정하거나 손실을 줄이고 싶다면 정산 전 언제든지 주식을 매도할 수 있습니다.
"Claude Fable 5가 미국 고객을 위해 복원되었습니다...?"의 현재 유력 후보는 71%의 "7월 1일"이며, 마켓이 해당 결과에 71%의 확률을 부여합니다. 두 번째로 가까운 결과는 57%의 "6월 26일"입니다. 이 확률은 트레이더들의 주식 매수 및 매도에 따라 실시간으로 업데이트되어 가장 가능성 있는 결과에 대한 최신 집단 시각을 반영합니다. 새로운 정보가 나타남에 따라 확률이 어떻게 변화하는지 자주 확인하거나 이 페이지를 북마크하세요.
"Claude Fable 5가 미국 고객을 위해 복원되었습니다...?"의 정산 규칙은 각 결과가 승자로 선언되기 위해 정확히 무엇이 일어나야 하는지를 정의합니다 — 결과를 결정하는 데 사용되는 공식 데이터 소스를 포함합니다. 이 페이지의 댓글 위 "규칙" 섹션에서 완전한 정산 기준을 검토할 수 있습니다. 거래 전 규칙을 주의 깊게 읽는 것을 권장합니다. 이 마켓이 어떻게 정산되는지를 관리하는 정확한 조건, 예외 사항, 출처를 명시하고 있습니다.
네. 정보를 얻기 위해 거래할 필요가 없습니다. 이 페이지는 "Claude Fable 5가 미국 고객을 위해 복원되었습니다...?"의 실시간 추적기 역할을 합니다. 결과 확률은 새로운 거래가 들어옴에 따라 실시간으로 업데이트됩니다. 이 페이지를 북마크하고 다른 트레이더들이 무엇을 말하는지 댓글 섹션을 확인할 수 있습니다. 차트의 시간 범위 필터를 사용하여 확률이 시간에 따라 어떻게 변화했는지 확인할 수도 있습니다. 마켓이 기대하는 바에 대한 무료 실시간 창입니다.
Polymarket 확률은 자신의 신념에 실제 돈을 투자하는 트레이더들에 의해 설정되어 정확한 예측을 표면화하는 경향이 있습니다. "Claude Fable 5가 미국 고객을 위해 복원되었습니다...?"에 $1.1 million이 거래되어 이 가격은 수천 명의 참가자의 집단 지식과 확신을 집계합니다 — 여론조사, 전문가 예측, 기존 설문조사를 종종 능가합니다. Polymarket과 같은 예측 마켓은 특히 이벤트가 정산일에 가까워질수록 강한 정확도 실적을 가지고 있습니다. 예를 들어 Polymarket의 1개월 정확도 점수는 94%입니다. Polymarket의 예측 정확도에 대한 최신 통계는 정확도 페이지를 방문하세요.
"Claude Fable 5가 미국 고객을 위해 복원되었습니다...?"에서 첫 거래를 하려면 무료 Polymarket 계정에 가입하고 암호화폐, 신용 또는 직불카드, 은행 이체를 사용하여 자금을 입금하세요. 계정에 자금이 입금되면 이 페이지로 돌아와 거래하려는 결과를 선택하고 금액을 입력하고 "거래"를 클릭하세요. 예측 마켓이 처음이라면 Polymarket 페이지 상단의 "이용 방법" 링크를 클릭하여 거래 방법에 대한 단계별 안내를 확인하세요.
Polymarket에서 각 결과의 가격은 마켓의 내재 확률을 나타냅니다. "Claude Fable 5가 미국 고객을 위해 복원되었습니다...?" 마켓에서 "7월 1일"의 71¢ 가격은 트레이더들이 "7월 1일"이 정확한 결과가 될 확률을 대략 71%로 보고 있음을 의미합니다. 71¢에 "Yes" 주식을 매수하고 결과가 맞으면 주당 $1.00을 받습니다 — 주당 29¢의 수익입니다. 틀리면 해당 주식은 $0의 가치입니다.
"Claude Fable 5가 미국 고객을 위해 복원되었습니다...?" 마켓은 Jul 1, 2026 전후에 정산될 예정입니다. 이는 해당 날짜까지 거래가 계속 열려 있고 새로운 정보가 나타남에 따라 확률이 계속 변할 것임을 의미합니다. 정확한 정산 시기는 이 페이지의 "규칙" 섹션에 명시된 대로 공식 결과가 이용 가능해지는 시점에 따라 달라집니다.
"Claude Fable 5가 미국 고객을 위해 복원되었습니다...?" 마켓에는 트레이더들이 분석을 공유하고, 결과를 토론하고, 최신 진전을 논의하는 88개 댓글의 활발한 커뮤니티이 있습니다. 아래 댓글 섹션으로 스크롤하여 다른 참가자들의 의견을 읽어보세요. "상위 보유자"로 필터링하여 마켓의 가장 큰 트레이더들의 포지션을 확인하거나 "활동" 탭에서 실시간 거래 피드를 확인할 수도 있습니다.
Polymarket은 세계 최대 예측 마켓으로, 실제 이벤트에 대한 지식으로 정보를 얻고 수익을 낼 수 있습니다. 트레이더들은 정치, 선거, 암호화폐, 금융, 스포츠, 기술, 문화 등 "Claude Fable 5가 미국 고객을 위해 복원되었습니다...?"과 같은 마켓을 포함한 다양한 주제의 결과에 대한 주식을 매수 및 매도합니다. 가격은 금전적 확신에 뒷받침된 실시간 크라우드소싱 확률을 반영하며, 여론조사, 전문가, 기존 설문조사보다 빠르고 정확한 신호를 제공하는 경우가 많습니다.
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