Trader consensus overwhelmingly backs the 40-64 post range at 100% implied probability for Elon Musk's X activity from April 30 to May 2, 2026, driven by verified trackers confirming exactly 50 posts as the market hits 100% progress early May 2 EST. This positioning stems from Musk's steady cadence—averaging 16-17 posts daily on viral topics like Starlink's Papua New Guinea rollout, Grok Voice benchmarks, Tesla trends, and political commentary—without the explosive bursts seen in prior high-volume weeks. Skin-in-the-game bettors see no realistic path to 65+ given historical patterns and remaining hours before likely midday ET close. An upset would require disputed post counts (e.g., excluding quotes/reposts) or an improbable late surge, defying recent moderation.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트40~64 100.0%
40개 미만 <1%
65~89 <1%
90~114 <1%
$1,403,046 거래량
$1,403,046 거래량
2026.05.02
40개 미만
아니오
40~64
예
65~89
아니오
90~114
아니오
115~139
아니오
140~164
아니오
165-189
아니오
190~214
아니오
215~239
아니오
240개 이상
아니오
40~64 100.0%
40개 미만 <1%
65~89 <1%
90~114 <1%
$1,403,046 거래량
$1,403,046 거래량
2026.05.02
40개 미만
$199,503 거래량
아니오
40~64
$235,105 거래량
예
65~89
$340,735 거래량
아니오
90~114
$276,547 거래량
아니오
115~139
$135,434 거래량
아니오
140~164
$62,547 거래량
아니오
165-189
$45,512 거래량
아니오
190~214
$46,496 거래량
아니오
215~239
$32,908 거래량
아니오
240개 이상
$28,258 거래량
아니오
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 30 12:00 PM ET to May 2, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus overwhelmingly backs the 40-64 post range at 100% implied probability for Elon Musk's X activity from April 30 to May 2, 2026, driven by verified trackers confirming exactly 50 posts as the market hits 100% progress early May 2 EST. This positioning stems from Musk's steady cadence—averaging 16-17 posts daily on viral topics like Starlink's Papua New Guinea rollout, Grok Voice benchmarks, Tesla trends, and political commentary—without the explosive bursts seen in prior high-volume weeks. Skin-in-the-game bettors see no realistic path to 65+ given historical patterns and remaining hours before likely midday ET close. An upset would require disputed post counts (e.g., excluding quotes/reposts) or an improbable late surge, defying recent moderation.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 30 12:00 PM ET to May 2, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
마켓 개설일: Apr 27, 2026, 12:01 PM ET
거래량
$1,403,046종료일
2026.05.02마켓 개설일
Apr 27, 2026, 12:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...결과 제안됨: 아니오
이의 없음
최종 결과: 아니오
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 30 12:00 PM ET to May 2, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus overwhelmingly backs the 40-64 post range at 100% implied probability for Elon Musk's X activity from April 30 to May 2, 2026, driven by verified trackers confirming exactly 50 posts as the market hits 100% progress early May 2 EST. This positioning stems from Musk's steady cadence—averaging 16-17 posts daily on viral topics like Starlink's Papua New Guinea rollout, Grok Voice benchmarks, Tesla trends, and political commentary—without the explosive bursts seen in prior high-volume weeks. Skin-in-the-game bettors see no realistic path to 65+ given historical patterns and remaining hours before likely midday ET close. An upset would require disputed post counts (e.g., excluding quotes/reposts) or an improbable late surge, defying recent moderation.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 30 12:00 PM ET to May 2, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
거래량
$1,403,046종료일
2026.05.02마켓 개설일
Apr 27, 2026, 12:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...결과 제안됨: 아니오
이의 없음
최종 결과: 아니오
Trader consensus overwhelmingly backs the 40-64 post range at 100% implied probability for Elon Musk's X activity from April 30 to May 2, 2026, driven by verified trackers confirming exactly 50 posts as the market hits 100% progress early May 2 EST. This positioning stems from Musk's steady cadence—averaging 16-17 posts daily on viral topics like Starlink's Papua New Guinea rollout, Grok Voice benchmarks, Tesla trends, and political commentary—without the explosive bursts seen in prior high-volume weeks. Skin-in-the-game bettors see no realistic path to 65+ given historical patterns and remaining hours before likely midday ET close. An upset would require disputed post counts (e.g., excluding quotes/reposts) or an improbable late surge, defying recent moderation.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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