Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 91.5% implied probability against Elon Musk securing a $10 billion-plus settlement from his lawsuit against Sam Altman and OpenAI, driven by the trial's closing arguments on May 14, 2026, where OpenAI's counsel effectively dismantled claims of breached charitable trust and unjust enrichment. Key testimony revealed no binding written agreement restricting OpenAI's for-profit pivot—enabled by its 2015 founding documents—and highlighted Musk's 2018 departure, power struggles including his demand for majority control, and delayed suit filing amid statute-of-limitations defenses. OpenAI's massive fundraising success, including billions from Microsoft, underscores its operational legitimacy. Jury deliberations are underway in Oakland federal court, with a verdict imminent; while a sympathetic panel could award symbolic nonprofit reforms, a multibillion-dollar payout faces steep legal barriers like unclean hands doctrines and precedent in AI governance disputes.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$79,521 거래량
$79,521 거래량
2026.12.31
예
$79,521 거래량
$79,521 거래량
2026.12.31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD in the initial trial of Musk v. Altman et al., Case No. 4:24-cv-04722-YGR (U.S. District Court, Northern District of California), by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying amounts include monetary damages or payments awarded via jury verdict, court judgment, or settlement reached during or prior to the initial trial proceedings. Only cash or cash-equivalent compensation payable to Elon Musk (or entities controlled by him) will be counted. Non-monetary relief will not count.
If a mistrial is declared, or if the initial trial concludes without Elon Musk receiving at least $10,000,000,000 USD, this market will resolve to "No". Any retrial, appeal, or subsequent proceedings will not be considered for this market.
If Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD during the initial trial proceedings, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 91.5% implied probability against Elon Musk securing a $10 billion-plus settlement from his lawsuit against Sam Altman and OpenAI, driven by the trial's closing arguments on May 14, 2026, where OpenAI's counsel effectively dismantled claims of breached charitable trust and unjust enrichment. Key testimony revealed no binding written agreement restricting OpenAI's for-profit pivot—enabled by its 2015 founding documents—and highlighted Musk's 2018 departure, power struggles including his demand for majority control, and delayed suit filing amid statute-of-limitations defenses. OpenAI's massive fundraising success, including billions from Microsoft, underscores its operational legitimacy. Jury deliberations are underway in Oakland federal court, with a verdict imminent; while a sympathetic panel could award symbolic nonprofit reforms, a multibillion-dollar payout faces steep legal barriers like unclean hands doctrines and precedent in AI governance disputes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD in the initial trial of Musk v. Altman et al., Case No. 4:24-cv-04722-YGR (U.S. District Court, Northern District of California), by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying amounts include monetary damages or payments awarded via jury verdict, court judgment, or settlement reached during or prior to the initial trial proceedings. Only cash or cash-equivalent compensation payable to Elon Musk (or entities controlled by him) will be counted. Non-monetary relief will not count.
If a mistrial is declared, or if the initial trial concludes without Elon Musk receiving at least $10,000,000,000 USD, this market will resolve to "No". Any retrial, appeal, or subsequent proceedings will not be considered for this market.
If Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD during the initial trial proceedings, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Qualifying amounts include monetary damages or payments awarded via jury verdict, court judgment, or settlement reached during or prior to the initial trial proceedings. Only cash or cash-equivalent compensation payable to Elon Musk (or entities controlled by him) will be counted. Non-monetary relief will not count.
If a mistrial is declared, or if the initial trial concludes without Elon Musk receiving at least $10,000,000,000 USD, this market will resolve to "No". Any retrial, appeal, or subsequent proceedings will not be considered for this market.
If Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD during the initial trial proceedings, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
마켓 개설일: Apr 27, 2026, 7:47 PM ET
거래량
$79,521종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Apr 27, 2026, 7:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD in the initial trial of Musk v. Altman et al., Case No. 4:24-cv-04722-YGR (U.S. District Court, Northern District of California), by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying amounts include monetary damages or payments awarded via jury verdict, court judgment, or settlement reached during or prior to the initial trial proceedings. Only cash or cash-equivalent compensation payable to Elon Musk (or entities controlled by him) will be counted. Non-monetary relief will not count.
If a mistrial is declared, or if the initial trial concludes without Elon Musk receiving at least $10,000,000,000 USD, this market will resolve to "No". Any retrial, appeal, or subsequent proceedings will not be considered for this market.
If Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD during the initial trial proceedings, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 91.5% implied probability against Elon Musk securing a $10 billion-plus settlement from his lawsuit against Sam Altman and OpenAI, driven by the trial's closing arguments on May 14, 2026, where OpenAI's counsel effectively dismantled claims of breached charitable trust and unjust enrichment. Key testimony revealed no binding written agreement restricting OpenAI's for-profit pivot—enabled by its 2015 founding documents—and highlighted Musk's 2018 departure, power struggles including his demand for majority control, and delayed suit filing amid statute-of-limitations defenses. OpenAI's massive fundraising success, including billions from Microsoft, underscores its operational legitimacy. Jury deliberations are underway in Oakland federal court, with a verdict imminent; while a sympathetic panel could award symbolic nonprofit reforms, a multibillion-dollar payout faces steep legal barriers like unclean hands doctrines and precedent in AI governance disputes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD in the initial trial of Musk v. Altman et al., Case No. 4:24-cv-04722-YGR (U.S. District Court, Northern District of California), by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying amounts include monetary damages or payments awarded via jury verdict, court judgment, or settlement reached during or prior to the initial trial proceedings. Only cash or cash-equivalent compensation payable to Elon Musk (or entities controlled by him) will be counted. Non-monetary relief will not count.
If a mistrial is declared, or if the initial trial concludes without Elon Musk receiving at least $10,000,000,000 USD, this market will resolve to "No". Any retrial, appeal, or subsequent proceedings will not be considered for this market.
If Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD during the initial trial proceedings, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Qualifying amounts include monetary damages or payments awarded via jury verdict, court judgment, or settlement reached during or prior to the initial trial proceedings. Only cash or cash-equivalent compensation payable to Elon Musk (or entities controlled by him) will be counted. Non-monetary relief will not count.
If a mistrial is declared, or if the initial trial concludes without Elon Musk receiving at least $10,000,000,000 USD, this market will resolve to "No". Any retrial, appeal, or subsequent proceedings will not be considered for this market.
If Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD during the initial trial proceedings, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
거래량
$79,521종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Apr 27, 2026, 7:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 91.5% implied probability against Elon Musk securing a $10 billion-plus settlement from his lawsuit against Sam Altman and OpenAI, driven by the trial's closing arguments on May 14, 2026, where OpenAI's counsel effectively dismantled claims of breached charitable trust and unjust enrichment. Key testimony revealed no binding written agreement restricting OpenAI's for-profit pivot—enabled by its 2015 founding documents—and highlighted Musk's 2018 departure, power struggles including his demand for majority control, and delayed suit filing amid statute-of-limitations defenses. OpenAI's massive fundraising success, including billions from Microsoft, underscores its operational legitimacy. Jury deliberations are underway in Oakland federal court, with a verdict imminent; while a sympathetic panel could award symbolic nonprofit reforms, a multibillion-dollar payout faces steep legal barriers like unclean hands doctrines and precedent in AI governance disputes.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
자주 묻는 질문