Anthropic maintains overwhelming trader consensus at over 90 percent implied probability for fielding the top large language model by month-end, driven by the February releases of Claude Opus 4.6 and Sonnet 4.6, which posted leading scores on SWE-bench Verified for coding, GPQA Diamond for reasoning, and ARC-AGI-2 for general intelligence while introducing 1-million-token context and native agent teams. These capabilities have widened the gap versus OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 family and Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro on enterprise-relevant benchmarks, with no comparable frontier updates reported since April. A credible surprise release or benchmark reversal from Google or OpenAI before May 31 remains the only realistic scenario that could narrow the lead, though current development timelines make such shifts unlikely.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트Anthropic 91%
Google 10%
OpenAI 1.3%
Alibaba <1%
$593,854 거래량
$593,854 거래량
2026.05.31
Anthropic
91%
10%
OpenAI
1%
Alibaba
<1%
Meta
<1%
xAI
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Baidu
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Anthropic 91%
Google 10%
OpenAI 1.3%
Alibaba <1%
$593,854 거래량
$593,854 거래량
2026.05.31
Anthropic
$56,860 거래량
91%
$61,083 거래량
10%
OpenAI
$36,213 거래량
1%
Alibaba
$58,455 거래량
<1%
Meta
$40,200 거래량
<1%
xAI
$50,174 거래량
<1%
Mistral
$25,554 거래량
<1%
Meituan
$34,097 거래량
<1%
ByteDance
$38,952 거래량
<1%
Baidu
$39,087 거래량
<1%
DeepSeek
$35,580 거래량
<1%
Microsoft
$25,718 거래량
<1%
Amazon
$29,179 거래량
<1%
Moonshot
$29,953 거래량
<1%
Z.ai
$32,847 거래량
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic maintains overwhelming trader consensus at over 90 percent implied probability for fielding the top large language model by month-end, driven by the February releases of Claude Opus 4.6 and Sonnet 4.6, which posted leading scores on SWE-bench Verified for coding, GPQA Diamond for reasoning, and ARC-AGI-2 for general intelligence while introducing 1-million-token context and native agent teams. These capabilities have widened the gap versus OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 family and Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro on enterprise-relevant benchmarks, with no comparable frontier updates reported since April. A credible surprise release or benchmark reversal from Google or OpenAI before May 31 remains the only realistic scenario that could narrow the lead, though current development timelines make such shifts unlikely.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
마켓 개설일: Apr 14, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
거래량
$593,854종료일
2026.05.31마켓 개설일
Apr 14, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic maintains overwhelming trader consensus at over 90 percent implied probability for fielding the top large language model by month-end, driven by the February releases of Claude Opus 4.6 and Sonnet 4.6, which posted leading scores on SWE-bench Verified for coding, GPQA Diamond for reasoning, and ARC-AGI-2 for general intelligence while introducing 1-million-token context and native agent teams. These capabilities have widened the gap versus OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 family and Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro on enterprise-relevant benchmarks, with no comparable frontier updates reported since April. A credible surprise release or benchmark reversal from Google or OpenAI before May 31 remains the only realistic scenario that could narrow the lead, though current development timelines make such shifts unlikely.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
거래량
$593,854종료일
2026.05.31마켓 개설일
Apr 14, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic maintains overwhelming trader consensus at over 90 percent implied probability for fielding the top large language model by month-end, driven by the February releases of Claude Opus 4.6 and Sonnet 4.6, which posted leading scores on SWE-bench Verified for coding, GPQA Diamond for reasoning, and ARC-AGI-2 for general intelligence while introducing 1-million-token context and native agent teams. These capabilities have widened the gap versus OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 family and Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro on enterprise-relevant benchmarks, with no comparable frontier updates reported since April. A credible surprise release or benchmark reversal from Google or OpenAI before May 31 remains the only realistic scenario that could narrow the lead, though current development timelines make such shifts unlikely.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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