Anthropic’s market-implied 67% probability for holding the top AI model by end of June reflects trader consensus around its recent Claude Opus 4.7 and Mythos releases, which have posted leading scores on reasoning and cybersecurity benchmarks ahead of competitors. These large language models demonstrate stronger adaptive reasoning and safety-aligned capabilities than OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 series or Google’s Gemini 3.1 variants, according to current arena and GPQA evaluations. Google’s 22.5% odds capture expectations for upcoming Gemini updates, while OpenAI’s lower 5.5% share signals that its latest instant and pro iterations have not yet displaced Anthropic’s edge. With resolution tied to end-of-month leaderboard standings, any new capability demonstrations or benchmark shifts in the next six weeks could still alter positioning before traders lock in final sentiment.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트Anthropic 67%
구글 22%
OpenAI 6%
xAI 2.6%
$1,455,219 거래량
$1,455,219 거래량
2026.06.30
Anthropic
67%
구글
22%
OpenAI
6%
xAI
3%
DeepSeek
1%
알리바바
1%
마이크로소프트
1%
메타
1%
Z.ai
1%
문샷
1%
메이투안
<1%
미스트랄
<1%
아마존
<1%
바이트댄스
<1%
바이두
<1%
Anthropic 67%
구글 22%
OpenAI 6%
xAI 2.6%
$1,455,219 거래량
$1,455,219 거래량
2026.06.30
Anthropic
$29,972 거래량
67%
구글
$18,324 거래량
22%
OpenAI
$49,298 거래량
6%
xAI
$14,928 거래량
3%
DeepSeek
$201,099 거래량
1%
알리바바
$136,475 거래량
1%
마이크로소프트
$11,847 거래량
1%
메타
$8,119 거래량
1%
Z.ai
$412,860 거래량
1%
문샷
$203,328 거래량
1%
메이투안
$270,668 거래량
<1%
미스트랄
$59,313 거래량
<1%
아마존
$17,620 거래량
<1%
바이트댄스
$12,783 거래량
<1%
바이두
$8,585 거래량
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s market-implied 67% probability for holding the top AI model by end of June reflects trader consensus around its recent Claude Opus 4.7 and Mythos releases, which have posted leading scores on reasoning and cybersecurity benchmarks ahead of competitors. These large language models demonstrate stronger adaptive reasoning and safety-aligned capabilities than OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 series or Google’s Gemini 3.1 variants, according to current arena and GPQA evaluations. Google’s 22.5% odds capture expectations for upcoming Gemini updates, while OpenAI’s lower 5.5% share signals that its latest instant and pro iterations have not yet displaced Anthropic’s edge. With resolution tied to end-of-month leaderboard standings, any new capability demonstrations or benchmark shifts in the next six weeks could still alter positioning before traders lock in final sentiment.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
마켓 개설일: Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
거래량
$1,455,219종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s market-implied 67% probability for holding the top AI model by end of June reflects trader consensus around its recent Claude Opus 4.7 and Mythos releases, which have posted leading scores on reasoning and cybersecurity benchmarks ahead of competitors. These large language models demonstrate stronger adaptive reasoning and safety-aligned capabilities than OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 series or Google’s Gemini 3.1 variants, according to current arena and GPQA evaluations. Google’s 22.5% odds capture expectations for upcoming Gemini updates, while OpenAI’s lower 5.5% share signals that its latest instant and pro iterations have not yet displaced Anthropic’s edge. With resolution tied to end-of-month leaderboard standings, any new capability demonstrations or benchmark shifts in the next six weeks could still alter positioning before traders lock in final sentiment.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
거래량
$1,455,219종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Anthropic’s market-implied 67% probability for holding the top AI model by end of June reflects trader consensus around its recent Claude Opus 4.7 and Mythos releases, which have posted leading scores on reasoning and cybersecurity benchmarks ahead of competitors. These large language models demonstrate stronger adaptive reasoning and safety-aligned capabilities than OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 series or Google’s Gemini 3.1 variants, according to current arena and GPQA evaluations. Google’s 22.5% odds capture expectations for upcoming Gemini updates, while OpenAI’s lower 5.5% share signals that its latest instant and pro iterations have not yet displaced Anthropic’s edge. With resolution tied to end-of-month leaderboard standings, any new capability demonstrations or benchmark shifts in the next six weeks could still alter positioning before traders lock in final sentiment.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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