Finland’s commanding rehearsal buzz and standout live delivery of the fiery “Liekinheitin” in Vienna last week have locked in 73% implied probability as the clear semi-final frontrunner, reflecting overwhelming trader consensus on its blend of violin pyrotechnics and emotional pop appeal. Israel’s polished staging and Greece’s strong diaspora support sit at 14% and 7.5%, respectively, trailing behind Finland’s pre-event momentum and critical consensus. With the first semi-final now complete, the market hinges on televote and jury tallies that typically favor entries with viral rehearsal clips and broad crossover appeal; any late shifts in reported audience reaction could still influence final settlement.