Recent Japan Meteorological Agency guidance shows mostly cloudy conditions over Tokyo on July 1, limiting solar heating and anchoring maximum temperatures near 27–28 °C. This aligns with the market’s tight clustering around those outcomes, reflecting minimal model spread in the short-range window and the lingering influence of the baiu frontal zone, which favors persistent cloud cover and reduced diurnal temperature range. Historical early-July baselines in Tokyo average 28–29 °C under clearer regimes, but current synoptic patterns and urban heat-island moderation under overcast skies support the observed trader consensus. Ensembles indicate low odds for 30 °C or higher without a rapid clearance, while probabilities below 26 °C remain slim absent stronger onshore flow. Updated JMA briefings and next model cycles will be the primary catalysts for any shift.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 1?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 1?
28°C 34%
27°C 29%
29°C 16%
26°C 13%
신규
$21,802 거래량
신규
$21,802 거래량
2026.07.01
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
1%
25°C
4%
26°C
13%
27°C
29%
28°C
34%
29°C
16%
30°C
5%
31°C
2%
32°C or higher
2%
28°C 34%
27°C 29%
29°C 16%
26°C 13%
신규
$21,802 거래량
신규
$21,802 거래량
2026.07.01
22°C or below
$5,312 거래량
<1%
23°C
$1,472 거래량
<1%
24°C
$696 거래량
1%
25°C
$573 거래량
4%
26°C
$816 거래량
13%
27°C
$4,928 거래량
29%
28°C
$3,779 거래량
34%
29°C
$1,227 거래량
16%
30°C
$743 거래량
5%
31°C
$515 거래량
2%
32°C or higher
$1,742 거래량
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency guidance shows mostly cloudy conditions over Tokyo on July 1, limiting solar heating and anchoring maximum temperatures near 27–28 °C. This aligns with the market’s tight clustering around those outcomes, reflecting minimal model spread in the short-range window and the lingering influence of the baiu frontal zone, which favors persistent cloud cover and reduced diurnal temperature range. Historical early-July baselines in Tokyo average 28–29 °C under clearer regimes, but current synoptic patterns and urban heat-island moderation under overcast skies support the observed trader consensus. Ensembles indicate low odds for 30 °C or higher without a rapid clearance, while probabilities below 26 °C remain slim absent stronger onshore flow. Updated JMA briefings and next model cycles will be the primary catalysts for any shift.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
마켓 개설일: Jun 29, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
거래량
$21,802종료일
2026.07.01마켓 개설일
Jun 29, 2026, 12:02 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency guidance shows mostly cloudy conditions over Tokyo on July 1, limiting solar heating and anchoring maximum temperatures near 27–28 °C. This aligns with the market’s tight clustering around those outcomes, reflecting minimal model spread in the short-range window and the lingering influence of the baiu frontal zone, which favors persistent cloud cover and reduced diurnal temperature range. Historical early-July baselines in Tokyo average 28–29 °C under clearer regimes, but current synoptic patterns and urban heat-island moderation under overcast skies support the observed trader consensus. Ensembles indicate low odds for 30 °C or higher without a rapid clearance, while probabilities below 26 °C remain slim absent stronger onshore flow. Updated JMA briefings and next model cycles will be the primary catalysts for any shift.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
거래량
$21,802종료일
2026.07.01마켓 개설일
Jun 29, 2026, 12:02 AM ETRecent Japan Meteorological Agency guidance shows mostly cloudy conditions over Tokyo on July 1, limiting solar heating and anchoring maximum temperatures near 27–28 °C. This aligns with the market’s tight clustering around those outcomes, reflecting minimal model spread in the short-range window and the lingering influence of the baiu frontal zone, which favors persistent cloud cover and reduced diurnal temperature range. Historical early-July baselines in Tokyo average 28–29 °C under clearer regimes, but current synoptic patterns and urban heat-island moderation under overcast skies support the observed trader consensus. Ensembles indicate low odds for 30 °C or higher without a rapid clearance, while probabilities below 26 °C remain slim absent stronger onshore flow. Updated JMA briefings and next model cycles will be the primary catalysts for any shift.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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