Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a tight contest between 4-6 and 7-9 Republican House incumbents losing primaries, driven by early-cycle MAGA momentum following Rep. Dan Crenshaw's (TX-2) upset defeat to Steve Toth on March 3 without former President Trump's endorsement—the sole GOP House primary loss to date. Recent Indiana state Senate primary wins for Trump-aligned challengers against incumbents on May 5 signal broader voter dissatisfaction with perceived moderates, while Nebraska and West Virginia contests on May 12 showed no further federal defeats. Incumbency advantages historically limit losses to single digits per cycle, but strong challengers in upcoming Pennsylvania (May 19), Kentucky, and California primaries—amid redistricting and party infighting—could tip totals higher if turnout favors insurgents.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트7-9 38.8%
<3 2.0%
10-12 1.5%
>15 1.3%
$41,776 거래량
$41,776 거래량
<3
2%
4-6
36%
7-9
39%
10-12
2%
13-15
<1%
>15
18%
7-9 38.8%
<3 2.0%
10-12 1.5%
>15 1.3%
$41,776 거래량
$41,776 거래량
<3
$31,479 거래량
2%
4-6
$7,558 거래량
36%
7-9
$598 거래량
39%
10-12
$729 거래량
2%
13-15
$840 거래량
<1%
>15
$572 거래량
18%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a tight contest between 4-6 and 7-9 Republican House incumbents losing primaries, driven by early-cycle MAGA momentum following Rep. Dan Crenshaw's (TX-2) upset defeat to Steve Toth on March 3 without former President Trump's endorsement—the sole GOP House primary loss to date. Recent Indiana state Senate primary wins for Trump-aligned challengers against incumbents on May 5 signal broader voter dissatisfaction with perceived moderates, while Nebraska and West Virginia contests on May 12 showed no further federal defeats. Incumbency advantages historically limit losses to single digits per cycle, but strong challengers in upcoming Pennsylvania (May 19), Kentucky, and California primaries—amid redistricting and party infighting—could tip totals higher if turnout favors insurgents.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
마켓 개설일: Jan 14, 2026, 2:52 PM ET
거래량
$41,776마켓 개설일
Jan 14, 2026, 2:52 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a tight contest between 4-6 and 7-9 Republican House incumbents losing primaries, driven by early-cycle MAGA momentum following Rep. Dan Crenshaw's (TX-2) upset defeat to Steve Toth on March 3 without former President Trump's endorsement—the sole GOP House primary loss to date. Recent Indiana state Senate primary wins for Trump-aligned challengers against incumbents on May 5 signal broader voter dissatisfaction with perceived moderates, while Nebraska and West Virginia contests on May 12 showed no further federal defeats. Incumbency advantages historically limit losses to single digits per cycle, but strong challengers in upcoming Pennsylvania (May 19), Kentucky, and California primaries—amid redistricting and party infighting—could tip totals higher if turnout favors insurgents.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
거래량
$41,776마켓 개설일
Jan 14, 2026, 2:52 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a tight contest between 4-6 and 7-9 Republican House incumbents losing primaries, driven by early-cycle MAGA momentum following Rep. Dan Crenshaw's (TX-2) upset defeat to Steve Toth on March 3 without former President Trump's endorsement—the sole GOP House primary loss to date. Recent Indiana state Senate primary wins for Trump-aligned challengers against incumbents on May 5 signal broader voter dissatisfaction with perceived moderates, while Nebraska and West Virginia contests on May 12 showed no further federal defeats. Incumbency advantages historically limit losses to single digits per cycle, but strong challengers in upcoming Pennsylvania (May 19), Kentucky, and California primaries—amid redistricting and party infighting—could tip totals higher if turnout favors insurgents.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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