The July 5 suspension of Mallory McMorrow’s campaign has narrowed the August 4 Democratic primary to a head-to-head contest between progressive Abdul El-Sayed and moderate Rep. Haley Stevens. El-Sayed holds a polling edge and key progressive endorsements, including from Sen. Bernie Sanders and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, while Stevens benefits from establishment backing and a substantial advertising advantage linked in part to pro-Israel groups. Policy contrasts on healthcare, immigration, and unconditional aid to Israel remain central in a state with a large Arab American electorate, and electability debates in the general election against the GOP nominee add uncertainty. With the primary weeks away and no dominant polling or spending breakout, trader pricing reflects a closely contested race in which modest shifts in turnout or late momentum could alter the margin.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트El-Sayed 5–10% 34%
El-Sayed <5% 33%
El-Sayed 10–15% 33%
Stevens 10–15% 31%
신규
신규
2026.08.04
El-Sayed 25%+
30%
El-Sayed 20–25%
21%
El-Sayed 15–20%
31%
El-Sayed 10–15%
33%
El-Sayed 5–10%
34%
El-Sayed <5%
33%
Stevens <5%
28%
Stevens 5–10%
30%
Stevens 10–15%
31%
Stevens 15%+
28%
El-Sayed 5–10% 34%
El-Sayed <5% 33%
El-Sayed 10–15% 33%
Stevens 10–15% 31%
신규
신규
2026.08.04
El-Sayed 25%+
$16 거래량
30%
El-Sayed 20–25%
$16 거래량
21%
El-Sayed 15–20%
$16 거래량
31%
El-Sayed 10–15%
$16 거래량
33%
El-Sayed 5–10%
$16 거래량
34%
El-Sayed <5%
$16 거래량
33%
Stevens <5%
$16 거래량
28%
Stevens 5–10%
$16 거래량
30%
Stevens 10–15%
$16 거래량
31%
Stevens 15%+
$41 거래량
28%
Primary elections in Michigan are scheduled to be held on August 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the Michigan Democratic Senate Primary.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Michigan, such as official statewide results published by the Michigan Secretary of State (https://www.michigan.gov/sos); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.The July 5 suspension of Mallory McMorrow’s campaign has narrowed the August 4 Democratic primary to a head-to-head contest between progressive Abdul El-Sayed and moderate Rep. Haley Stevens. El-Sayed holds a polling edge and key progressive endorsements, including from Sen. Bernie Sanders and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, while Stevens benefits from establishment backing and a substantial advertising advantage linked in part to pro-Israel groups. Policy contrasts on healthcare, immigration, and unconditional aid to Israel remain central in a state with a large Arab American electorate, and electability debates in the general election against the GOP nominee add uncertainty. With the primary weeks away and no dominant polling or spending breakout, trader pricing reflects a closely contested race in which modest shifts in turnout or late momentum could alter the margin.
Primary elections in Michigan are scheduled to be held on August 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the Michigan Democratic Senate Primary.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Michigan, such as official statewide results published by the Michigan Secretary of State (https://www.michigan.gov/sos); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the Michigan Democratic Senate Primary.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Michigan, such as official statewide results published by the Michigan Secretary of State (https://www.michigan.gov/sos); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
마켓 개설일: Jul 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ET
거래량
$185종료일
2026.08.04마켓 개설일
Jul 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Primary elections in Michigan are scheduled to be held on August 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the Michigan Democratic Senate Primary.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Michigan, such as official statewide results published by the Michigan Secretary of State (https://www.michigan.gov/sos); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.The July 5 suspension of Mallory McMorrow’s campaign has narrowed the August 4 Democratic primary to a head-to-head contest between progressive Abdul El-Sayed and moderate Rep. Haley Stevens. El-Sayed holds a polling edge and key progressive endorsements, including from Sen. Bernie Sanders and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, while Stevens benefits from establishment backing and a substantial advertising advantage linked in part to pro-Israel groups. Policy contrasts on healthcare, immigration, and unconditional aid to Israel remain central in a state with a large Arab American electorate, and electability debates in the general election against the GOP nominee add uncertainty. With the primary weeks away and no dominant polling or spending breakout, trader pricing reflects a closely contested race in which modest shifts in turnout or late momentum could alter the margin.
Primary elections in Michigan are scheduled to be held on August 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the Michigan Democratic Senate Primary.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Michigan, such as official statewide results published by the Michigan Secretary of State (https://www.michigan.gov/sos); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the Michigan Democratic Senate Primary.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Michigan, such as official statewide results published by the Michigan Secretary of State (https://www.michigan.gov/sos); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
거래량
$185종료일
2026.08.04마켓 개설일
Jul 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The July 5 suspension of Mallory McMorrow’s campaign has narrowed the August 4 Democratic primary to a head-to-head contest between progressive Abdul El-Sayed and moderate Rep. Haley Stevens. El-Sayed holds a polling edge and key progressive endorsements, including from Sen. Bernie Sanders and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, while Stevens benefits from establishment backing and a substantial advertising advantage linked in part to pro-Israel groups. Policy contrasts on healthcare, immigration, and unconditional aid to Israel remain central in a state with a large Arab American electorate, and electability debates in the general election against the GOP nominee add uncertainty. With the primary weeks away and no dominant polling or spending breakout, trader pricing reflects a closely contested race in which modest shifts in turnout or late momentum could alter the margin.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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