Traders show overwhelming consensus that SpaceX would command a closing market capitalization above one trillion dollars in any near-term IPO, as captured by the 95.5 percent implied probability on that outcome. This positioning is driven by Starlink’s accelerating subscriber growth and revenue, combined with SpaceX’s unmatched dominance in reusable launch vehicles and expanding NASA and commercial contracts. Continued progress on the Starship program has reinforced expectations of sharply higher future cash flows from both satellite broadband and crewed missions. While the current market-implied odds reflect strong trader conviction backed by real capital, scenarios such as prolonged regulatory delays on an IPO filing or a sharp contraction in private-market multiples could still alter the final valuation range.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트1조+ 96%
2028년 이전에는 상장 없음 1.3%
8,000억–9,000억 1.1%
9,000억–1조 <1%
$3,434,302 거래량
$3,434,302 거래량
2027.12.31
5,000억 미만
<1%
5,000억~6,000억
<1%
6,000억–7,000억
<1%
7,000억–8,000억
1%
8,000억–9,000억
1%
9,000억–1조
1%
1조+
96%
2028년 이전에는 상장 없음
1%
1조+ 96%
2028년 이전에는 상장 없음 1.3%
8,000억–9,000억 1.1%
9,000억–1조 <1%
$3,434,302 거래량
$3,434,302 거래량
2027.12.31
5,000억 미만
$376,674 거래량
<1%
5,000억~6,000억
$321,269 거래량
<1%
6,000억–7,000억
$292,708 거래량
<1%
7,000억–8,000억
$331,677 거래량
1%
8,000억–9,000억
$481,998 거래량
1%
9,000억–1조
$419,305 거래량
1%
1조+
$610,806 거래량
96%
2028년 이전에는 상장 없음
$599,864 거래량
1%
This market will resolve based on SpaceX's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Traders show overwhelming consensus that SpaceX would command a closing market capitalization above one trillion dollars in any near-term IPO, as captured by the 95.5 percent implied probability on that outcome. This positioning is driven by Starlink’s accelerating subscriber growth and revenue, combined with SpaceX’s unmatched dominance in reusable launch vehicles and expanding NASA and commercial contracts. Continued progress on the Starship program has reinforced expectations of sharply higher future cash flows from both satellite broadband and crewed missions. While the current market-implied odds reflect strong trader conviction backed by real capital, scenarios such as prolonged regulatory delays on an IPO filing or a sharp contraction in private-market multiples could still alter the final valuation range.
This market will resolve based on SpaceX's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
마켓 개설일: Dec 5, 2025, 8:24 PM ET
거래량
$3,434,302종료일
2027.12.31마켓 개설일
Dec 5, 2025, 8:24 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on SpaceX's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Traders show overwhelming consensus that SpaceX would command a closing market capitalization above one trillion dollars in any near-term IPO, as captured by the 95.5 percent implied probability on that outcome. This positioning is driven by Starlink’s accelerating subscriber growth and revenue, combined with SpaceX’s unmatched dominance in reusable launch vehicles and expanding NASA and commercial contracts. Continued progress on the Starship program has reinforced expectations of sharply higher future cash flows from both satellite broadband and crewed missions. While the current market-implied odds reflect strong trader conviction backed by real capital, scenarios such as prolonged regulatory delays on an IPO filing or a sharp contraction in private-market multiples could still alter the final valuation range.
This market will resolve based on SpaceX's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
거래량
$3,434,302종료일
2027.12.31마켓 개설일
Dec 5, 2025, 8:24 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Traders show overwhelming consensus that SpaceX would command a closing market capitalization above one trillion dollars in any near-term IPO, as captured by the 95.5 percent implied probability on that outcome. This positioning is driven by Starlink’s accelerating subscriber growth and revenue, combined with SpaceX’s unmatched dominance in reusable launch vehicles and expanding NASA and commercial contracts. Continued progress on the Starship program has reinforced expectations of sharply higher future cash flows from both satellite broadband and crewed missions. While the current market-implied odds reflect strong trader conviction backed by real capital, scenarios such as prolonged regulatory delays on an IPO filing or a sharp contraction in private-market multiples could still alter the final valuation range.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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