Austin's housing market continues to reflect a buyer-favored correction, with Zillow Home Value Index readings near $495,000-$510,000 as of late May 2026 and median sales prices reported between $440,000 and $542,000 depending on the metro versus city metric. Elevated inventory levels around six months, elevated mortgage rates constraining affordability, and year-over-year price declines of 2-6% position the sub-$481,000 outcome as the market-implied favorite at 46.5% probability. Recent MLS data showing increased price reductions, longer days on market near 60-74, and modest sales volume gains without corresponding price recovery reinforce downward pressure through the June 30 resolution. The 19% odds on values above $495,000 capture residual uncertainty around any late-month stabilization, while narrower bins reflect tighter clustering around current levels.