Traders assign Anthropic a commanding 71.2% implied probability for fielding the strongest large language model by the end of June because its Claude Opus 4.7 and Mythos preview have posted leading results on agentic coding benchmarks such as SWE-bench and advanced reasoning evaluations. These releases, paired with expanded 1-million-token context handling and demonstrated vulnerability discovery in controlled testing, have strengthened the company’s edge in enterprise-grade performance. OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 launch in late April narrowed some gaps on general-purpose tasks, while Google’s Gemini 3.1 updates improved speed and multimodal capabilities, yet neither has displaced Anthropic’s current lead in the metrics most relevant to frontier-model assessments. With roughly six weeks remaining, any further benchmark gains or capability demonstrations from Anthropic could solidify its position before resolution.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트앤트로픽 71.2%
구글 21%
오픈AI 7%
xAI 1.0%
$6,013,830 거래량
$6,013,830 거래량
2026.06.30
앤트로픽
71%
구글
21%
오픈AI
7%
xAI
1%
메타
1%
DeepSeek
<1%
아마존
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
미스트랄
<1%
마이크로소프트
<1%
바이트댄스
<1%
알리바바
<1%
문샷
<1%
미투안
<1%
바이두
<1%
앤트로픽 71.2%
구글 21%
오픈AI 7%
xAI 1.0%
$6,013,830 거래량
$6,013,830 거래량
2026.06.30
앤트로픽
$846,005 거래량
71%
구글
$549,750 거래량
21%
오픈AI
$343,765 거래량
7%
xAI
$1,067,771 거래량
1%
메타
$137,001 거래량
1%
DeepSeek
$504,511 거래량
<1%
아마존
$163,559 거래량
<1%
Z.ai
$303,598 거래량
<1%
미스트랄
$483,628 거래량
<1%
마이크로소프트
$156,712 거래량
<1%
바이트댄스
$160,180 거래량
<1%
알리바바
$383,413 거래량
<1%
문샷
$364,387 거래량
<1%
미투안
$383,491 거래량
<1%
바이두
$166,063 거래량
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Traders assign Anthropic a commanding 71.2% implied probability for fielding the strongest large language model by the end of June because its Claude Opus 4.7 and Mythos preview have posted leading results on agentic coding benchmarks such as SWE-bench and advanced reasoning evaluations. These releases, paired with expanded 1-million-token context handling and demonstrated vulnerability discovery in controlled testing, have strengthened the company’s edge in enterprise-grade performance. OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 launch in late April narrowed some gaps on general-purpose tasks, while Google’s Gemini 3.1 updates improved speed and multimodal capabilities, yet neither has displaced Anthropic’s current lead in the metrics most relevant to frontier-model assessments. With roughly six weeks remaining, any further benchmark gains or capability demonstrations from Anthropic could solidify its position before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
마켓 개설일: Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
거래량
$6,013,830종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Traders assign Anthropic a commanding 71.2% implied probability for fielding the strongest large language model by the end of June because its Claude Opus 4.7 and Mythos preview have posted leading results on agentic coding benchmarks such as SWE-bench and advanced reasoning evaluations. These releases, paired with expanded 1-million-token context handling and demonstrated vulnerability discovery in controlled testing, have strengthened the company’s edge in enterprise-grade performance. OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 launch in late April narrowed some gaps on general-purpose tasks, while Google’s Gemini 3.1 updates improved speed and multimodal capabilities, yet neither has displaced Anthropic’s current lead in the metrics most relevant to frontier-model assessments. With roughly six weeks remaining, any further benchmark gains or capability demonstrations from Anthropic could solidify its position before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
거래량
$6,013,830종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Traders assign Anthropic a commanding 71.2% implied probability for fielding the strongest large language model by the end of June because its Claude Opus 4.7 and Mythos preview have posted leading results on agentic coding benchmarks such as SWE-bench and advanced reasoning evaluations. These releases, paired with expanded 1-million-token context handling and demonstrated vulnerability discovery in controlled testing, have strengthened the company’s edge in enterprise-grade performance. OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 launch in late April narrowed some gaps on general-purpose tasks, while Google’s Gemini 3.1 updates improved speed and multimodal capabilities, yet neither has displaced Anthropic’s current lead in the metrics most relevant to frontier-model assessments. With roughly six weeks remaining, any further benchmark gains or capability demonstrations from Anthropic could solidify its position before resolution.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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