Anthropic’s recent release of Claude Opus 4.7, featuring expanded 1M-token context, adaptive thinking modes, and strong gains on agentic coding benchmarks, has anchored trader consensus at a 64% implied probability for the company to hold the top model by end of June. This positions Anthropic ahead in practical capabilities that matter for frontier evaluations, outpacing Google’s Gemini 3.1 series at 24% despite its leading scores on certain reasoning and multimodal tests. OpenAI’s April launch of GPT-5.5 and subsequent refinements have not shifted momentum enough to close the gap, leaving it at just 5%. With no major model drops confirmed before the June resolution date, current odds reflect sustained strength in Anthropic’s development cadence and benchmark performance rather than any single upcoming catalyst.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트Anthropic 64%
구글 24%
OpenAI 5%
xAI 2.6%
$1,460,763 거래량
$1,460,763 거래량
2026.06.30
Anthropic
64%
구글
24%
OpenAI
5%
xAI
3%
DeepSeek
1%
알리바바
1%
메타
1%
Z.ai
1%
문샷
1%
메이투안
<1%
아마존
<1%
마이크로소프트
<1%
미스트랄
<1%
바이트댄스
<1%
바이두
<1%
Anthropic 64%
구글 24%
OpenAI 5%
xAI 2.6%
$1,460,763 거래량
$1,460,763 거래량
2026.06.30
Anthropic
$30,616 거래량
64%
구글
$18,768 거래량
24%
OpenAI
$49,364 거래량
5%
xAI
$14,994 거래량
3%
DeepSeek
$201,408 거래량
1%
알리바바
$136,551 거래량
1%
메타
$8,184 거래량
1%
Z.ai
$412,961 거래량
1%
문샷
$203,394 거래량
1%
메이투안
$270,733 거래량
<1%
아마존
$20,998 거래량
<1%
마이크로소프트
$11,912 거래량
<1%
미스트랄
$59,379 거래량
<1%
바이트댄스
$12,849 거래량
<1%
바이두
$8,651 거래량
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s recent release of Claude Opus 4.7, featuring expanded 1M-token context, adaptive thinking modes, and strong gains on agentic coding benchmarks, has anchored trader consensus at a 64% implied probability for the company to hold the top model by end of June. This positions Anthropic ahead in practical capabilities that matter for frontier evaluations, outpacing Google’s Gemini 3.1 series at 24% despite its leading scores on certain reasoning and multimodal tests. OpenAI’s April launch of GPT-5.5 and subsequent refinements have not shifted momentum enough to close the gap, leaving it at just 5%. With no major model drops confirmed before the June resolution date, current odds reflect sustained strength in Anthropic’s development cadence and benchmark performance rather than any single upcoming catalyst.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
마켓 개설일: Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
거래량
$1,460,763종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s recent release of Claude Opus 4.7, featuring expanded 1M-token context, adaptive thinking modes, and strong gains on agentic coding benchmarks, has anchored trader consensus at a 64% implied probability for the company to hold the top model by end of June. This positions Anthropic ahead in practical capabilities that matter for frontier evaluations, outpacing Google’s Gemini 3.1 series at 24% despite its leading scores on certain reasoning and multimodal tests. OpenAI’s April launch of GPT-5.5 and subsequent refinements have not shifted momentum enough to close the gap, leaving it at just 5%. With no major model drops confirmed before the June resolution date, current odds reflect sustained strength in Anthropic’s development cadence and benchmark performance rather than any single upcoming catalyst.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
거래량
$1,460,763종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Anthropic’s recent release of Claude Opus 4.7, featuring expanded 1M-token context, adaptive thinking modes, and strong gains on agentic coding benchmarks, has anchored trader consensus at a 64% implied probability for the company to hold the top model by end of June. This positions Anthropic ahead in practical capabilities that matter for frontier evaluations, outpacing Google’s Gemini 3.1 series at 24% despite its leading scores on certain reasoning and multimodal tests. OpenAI’s April launch of GPT-5.5 and subsequent refinements have not shifted momentum enough to close the gap, leaving it at just 5%. With no major model drops confirmed before the June resolution date, current odds reflect sustained strength in Anthropic’s development cadence and benchmark performance rather than any single upcoming catalyst.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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