US military operations under Project Freedom, including guided-missile destroyer transits through the Strait of Hormuz in early May amid Iranian missile and drone incidents, represent the dominant driver of trader positioning on which nations will deploy warships by the May 31 deadline. These actions, backed by over 100 aircraft and 15,000 personnel, directly address the effective blockade that has curtailed roughly 10 million barrels per day of Middle East oil exports since March, pushing EIA-modeled Brent crude to average near $106 per barrel through June. Heightened shipping risk premiums and tanker route volatility have amplified energy-sector equity swings, while UK destroyer commitments signal potential allied participation that could further stabilize or escalate flows. With resolution imminent, traders monitor any additional naval announcements or de-escalation talks for shifts in implied probabilities around sustained high oil prices and supply recovery.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$1,010,528 거래량
2026.05.31
United Kingdom
3%
France
4%
Germany
1%
Italy
1%
Netherlands
1%
Japan
<1%
Canada
<1%
India
2%
Greece
1%
Pakistan
1%
Saudi Arabia
2%
UAE
5%
Bahrain
1%
Qatar
<1%
Kuwait
2%
Oman
1%
South Korea
1%
Australia
<1%
$1,010,528 거래량
United Kingdom
$162,951 거래량
3%
France
$96,016 거래량
4%
Germany
$166,771 거래량
1%
Italy
$74,400 거래량
1%
Netherlands
$50,968 거래량
1%
Japan
$112,820 거래량
<1%
Canada
$19,730 거래량
<1%
India
$7,441 거래량
2%
Greece
$18,417 거래량
1%
Pakistan
$11,940 거래량
1%
Saudi Arabia
$20,310 거래량
2%
UAE
$4,426 거래량
5%
Bahrain
$19,791 거래량
1%
Qatar
$5,816 거래량
<1%
Kuwait
$3,325 거래량
2%
Oman
$4,506 거래량
1%
South Korea
$83,281 거래량
1%
Australia
$72,142 거래량
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.US military operations under Project Freedom, including guided-missile destroyer transits through the Strait of Hormuz in early May amid Iranian missile and drone incidents, represent the dominant driver of trader positioning on which nations will deploy warships by the May 31 deadline. These actions, backed by over 100 aircraft and 15,000 personnel, directly address the effective blockade that has curtailed roughly 10 million barrels per day of Middle East oil exports since March, pushing EIA-modeled Brent crude to average near $106 per barrel through June. Heightened shipping risk premiums and tanker route volatility have amplified energy-sector equity swings, while UK destroyer commitments signal potential allied participation that could further stabilize or escalate flows. With resolution imminent, traders monitor any additional naval announcements or de-escalation talks for shifts in implied probabilities around sustained high oil prices and supply recovery.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
마켓 개설일: May 5, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
거래량
$1,010,528종료일
2026.05.31마켓 개설일
May 5, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.US military operations under Project Freedom, including guided-missile destroyer transits through the Strait of Hormuz in early May amid Iranian missile and drone incidents, represent the dominant driver of trader positioning on which nations will deploy warships by the May 31 deadline. These actions, backed by over 100 aircraft and 15,000 personnel, directly address the effective blockade that has curtailed roughly 10 million barrels per day of Middle East oil exports since March, pushing EIA-modeled Brent crude to average near $106 per barrel through June. Heightened shipping risk premiums and tanker route volatility have amplified energy-sector equity swings, while UK destroyer commitments signal potential allied participation that could further stabilize or escalate flows. With resolution imminent, traders monitor any additional naval announcements or de-escalation talks for shifts in implied probabilities around sustained high oil prices and supply recovery.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
거래량
$1,010,528종료일
2026.05.31마켓 개설일
May 5, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US military operations under Project Freedom, including guided-missile destroyer transits through the Strait of Hormuz in early May amid Iranian missile and drone incidents, represent the dominant driver of trader positioning on which nations will deploy warships by the May 31 deadline. These actions, backed by over 100 aircraft and 15,000 personnel, directly address the effective blockade that has curtailed roughly 10 million barrels per day of Middle East oil exports since March, pushing EIA-modeled Brent crude to average near $106 per barrel through June. Heightened shipping risk premiums and tanker route volatility have amplified energy-sector equity swings, while UK destroyer commitments signal potential allied participation that could further stabilize or escalate flows. With resolution imminent, traders monitor any additional naval announcements or de-escalation talks for shifts in implied probabilities around sustained high oil prices and supply recovery.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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