Heightened geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, which handles roughly 20 percent of global oil trade, continue to drive trader focus on naval transits through May 31. Recent U.S. Central Command operations under Project Freedom, including destroyer movements and reported intercepts of Iranian vessels since early May, have kept energy price volatility elevated, with Brent crude reacting to any signs of renewed blockades or safe-passage guarantees. A May 10 multinational meeting hosted by the UK and France to coordinate escort missions has introduced potential for broader European naval involvement, while Iranian warnings against such deployments add uncertainty to shipping lanes and tanker charter rates. These dynamics underscore how even limited warship confirmations could ease supply-chain bottlenecks and influence forward curves for refined products ahead of the deadline.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$1,006,259 거래량
2026.05.31
United Kingdom
4%
France
4%
Germany
1%
Italy
1%
Netherlands
1%
Japan
1%
Canada
<1%
India
2%
Greece
<1%
Pakistan
1%
Saudi Arabia
2%
UAE
5%
Bahrain
2%
Qatar
<1%
Kuwait
3%
Oman
1%
South Korea
<1%
Australia
<1%
$1,006,259 거래량
United Kingdom
$162,485 거래량
4%
France
$95,733 거래량
4%
Germany
$166,717 거래량
1%
Italy
$74,399 거래량
1%
Netherlands
$50,968 거래량
1%
Japan
$112,031 거래량
1%
Canada
$19,730 거래량
<1%
India
$7,407 거래량
2%
Greece
$18,380 거래량
<1%
Pakistan
$11,940 거래량
1%
Saudi Arabia
$20,310 거래량
2%
UAE
$2,770 거래량
5%
Bahrain
$19,728 거래량
2%
Qatar
$5,626 거래량
<1%
Kuwait
$3,145 거래량
3%
Oman
$4,498 거래량
1%
South Korea
$83,114 거래량
<1%
Australia
$72,042 거래량
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Heightened geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, which handles roughly 20 percent of global oil trade, continue to drive trader focus on naval transits through May 31. Recent U.S. Central Command operations under Project Freedom, including destroyer movements and reported intercepts of Iranian vessels since early May, have kept energy price volatility elevated, with Brent crude reacting to any signs of renewed blockades or safe-passage guarantees. A May 10 multinational meeting hosted by the UK and France to coordinate escort missions has introduced potential for broader European naval involvement, while Iranian warnings against such deployments add uncertainty to shipping lanes and tanker charter rates. These dynamics underscore how even limited warship confirmations could ease supply-chain bottlenecks and influence forward curves for refined products ahead of the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
마켓 개설일: May 5, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
거래량
$1,006,259종료일
2026.05.31마켓 개설일
May 5, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Heightened geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, which handles roughly 20 percent of global oil trade, continue to drive trader focus on naval transits through May 31. Recent U.S. Central Command operations under Project Freedom, including destroyer movements and reported intercepts of Iranian vessels since early May, have kept energy price volatility elevated, with Brent crude reacting to any signs of renewed blockades or safe-passage guarantees. A May 10 multinational meeting hosted by the UK and France to coordinate escort missions has introduced potential for broader European naval involvement, while Iranian warnings against such deployments add uncertainty to shipping lanes and tanker charter rates. These dynamics underscore how even limited warship confirmations could ease supply-chain bottlenecks and influence forward curves for refined products ahead of the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
거래량
$1,006,259종료일
2026.05.31마켓 개설일
May 5, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Heightened geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, which handles roughly 20 percent of global oil trade, continue to drive trader focus on naval transits through May 31. Recent U.S. Central Command operations under Project Freedom, including destroyer movements and reported intercepts of Iranian vessels since early May, have kept energy price volatility elevated, with Brent crude reacting to any signs of renewed blockades or safe-passage guarantees. A May 10 multinational meeting hosted by the UK and France to coordinate escort missions has introduced potential for broader European naval involvement, while Iranian warnings against such deployments add uncertainty to shipping lanes and tanker charter rates. These dynamics underscore how even limited warship confirmations could ease supply-chain bottlenecks and influence forward curves for refined products ahead of the deadline.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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