Recent federal immigration reductions, including permanent resident targets lowered to 380,000 for 2026 and measures to cap temporary residents at 5 percent of the population by year-end, have driven consecutive quarterly population declines into early 2026. Statistics Canada data show a 102,000 drop for 2025—the first annual decline on record—primarily from sharp outflows of non-permanent residents. Parliamentary Budget Officer projections indicate flat or marginally negative growth for 2026 at around 0.2 percent, suggesting outflows will moderate after the initial policy tightening rather than accelerate. This positions the implied 60 percent probability for "No" on whether 2026 produces the largest drop, as traders assess the steepest contraction phase as already complete.