Recent developments in early May 2026, including Northern Hemisphere surface temperatures reaching a record 17.53 °C on May 8 according to preliminary monitoring data, reflect the combined influence of a strengthening El Niño and the long-term rise in global mean temperatures from greenhouse-gas forcing. These factors have positioned the first few days of the month near or at the upper end of observed anomalies, with model consensus indicating limited scope for surpassing the single highest daily value on record while favoring a near-miss outcome. Ongoing ocean heat release and atmospheric circulation patterns continue to sustain elevated baselines, though inter-model spread in short-term forecasts introduces modest uncertainty around exact daily rankings.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano2026 May 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?
2026 May 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?
2nd hottest 65%
1st hottest 30%
3rd hottest 5.5%
4th or lower 1.1%
$104,113 Wol.
$104,113 Wol.
Jun 10, 2026
1st hottest
30%
2nd hottest
65%
3rd hottest
6%
4th or lower
1%
2nd hottest 65%
1st hottest 30%
3rd hottest 5.5%
4th or lower 1.1%
$104,113 Wol.
$104,113 Wol.
Jun 10, 2026
1st hottest
$11,692 Wol.
30%
2nd hottest
$3,370 Wol.
65%
3rd hottest
$39,419 Wol.
6%
4th or lower
$49,632 Wol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 versus the data points available for all other Mays on record.
Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Recent developments in early May 2026, including Northern Hemisphere surface temperatures reaching a record 17.53 °C on May 8 according to preliminary monitoring data, reflect the combined influence of a strengthening El Niño and the long-term rise in global mean temperatures from greenhouse-gas forcing. These factors have positioned the first few days of the month near or at the upper end of observed anomalies, with model consensus indicating limited scope for surpassing the single highest daily value on record while favoring a near-miss outcome. Ongoing ocean heat release and atmospheric circulation patterns continue to sustain elevated baselines, though inter-model spread in short-term forecasts introduces modest uncertainty around exact daily rankings.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 versus the data points available for all other Mays on record.
Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Rynek otwarty: Apr 27, 2026, 4:32 PM ET
Wolumen
$104,113Data zakończenia
Jun 10, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 27, 2026, 4:32 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 versus the data points available for all other Mays on record.
Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Recent developments in early May 2026, including Northern Hemisphere surface temperatures reaching a record 17.53 °C on May 8 according to preliminary monitoring data, reflect the combined influence of a strengthening El Niño and the long-term rise in global mean temperatures from greenhouse-gas forcing. These factors have positioned the first few days of the month near or at the upper end of observed anomalies, with model consensus indicating limited scope for surpassing the single highest daily value on record while favoring a near-miss outcome. Ongoing ocean heat release and atmospheric circulation patterns continue to sustain elevated baselines, though inter-model spread in short-term forecasts introduces modest uncertainty around exact daily rankings.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 versus the data points available for all other Mays on record.
Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Wolumen
$104,113Data zakończenia
Jun 10, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 27, 2026, 4:32 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent developments in early May 2026, including Northern Hemisphere surface temperatures reaching a record 17.53 °C on May 8 according to preliminary monitoring data, reflect the combined influence of a strengthening El Niño and the long-term rise in global mean temperatures from greenhouse-gas forcing. These factors have positioned the first few days of the month near or at the upper end of observed anomalies, with model consensus indicating limited scope for surpassing the single highest daily value on record while favoring a near-miss outcome. Ongoing ocean heat release and atmospheric circulation patterns continue to sustain elevated baselines, though inter-model spread in short-term forecasts introduces modest uncertainty around exact daily rankings.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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