Recent global temperature observations from the first three days of May 2026 place surface and lower-troposphere readings just below the all-time highs recorded in earlier peak years, establishing the 2nd-hottest outcome as the clear market leader. With ENSO-neutral conditions holding and no major heatwave signals emerging in primary monitoring regions, satellite and surface-station data from agencies such as NOAA show anomalies consistent with second-place historical rankings rather than record-breaking extremes. Model consensus indicates limited intensification potential through the short window, while upcoming final dataset revisions could still shift the precise ordering before market resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano2026 May 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?
2026 May 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?
2nd hottest 67%
1st hottest 29%
3rd hottest 5.3%
4th or lower 1.1%
$104,280 Wol.
$104,280 Wol.
Jun 10, 2026
1st hottest
29%
2nd hottest
67%
3rd hottest
5%
4th or lower
1%
2nd hottest 67%
1st hottest 29%
3rd hottest 5.3%
4th or lower 1.1%
$104,280 Wol.
$104,280 Wol.
Jun 10, 2026
1st hottest
$11,825 Wol.
29%
2nd hottest
$3,384 Wol.
67%
3rd hottest
$39,537 Wol.
5%
4th or lower
$50,017 Wol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 versus the data points available for all other Mays on record.
Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Recent global temperature observations from the first three days of May 2026 place surface and lower-troposphere readings just below the all-time highs recorded in earlier peak years, establishing the 2nd-hottest outcome as the clear market leader. With ENSO-neutral conditions holding and no major heatwave signals emerging in primary monitoring regions, satellite and surface-station data from agencies such as NOAA show anomalies consistent with second-place historical rankings rather than record-breaking extremes. Model consensus indicates limited intensification potential through the short window, while upcoming final dataset revisions could still shift the precise ordering before market resolution.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 versus the data points available for all other Mays on record.
Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Rynek otwarty: Apr 27, 2026, 4:32 PM ET
Wolumen
$104,280Data zakończenia
Jun 10, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 27, 2026, 4:32 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 versus the data points available for all other Mays on record.
Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Recent global temperature observations from the first three days of May 2026 place surface and lower-troposphere readings just below the all-time highs recorded in earlier peak years, establishing the 2nd-hottest outcome as the clear market leader. With ENSO-neutral conditions holding and no major heatwave signals emerging in primary monitoring regions, satellite and surface-station data from agencies such as NOAA show anomalies consistent with second-place historical rankings rather than record-breaking extremes. Model consensus indicates limited intensification potential through the short window, while upcoming final dataset revisions could still shift the precise ordering before market resolution.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 versus the data points available for all other Mays on record.
Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Wolumen
$104,280Data zakończenia
Jun 10, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 27, 2026, 4:32 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent global temperature observations from the first three days of May 2026 place surface and lower-troposphere readings just below the all-time highs recorded in earlier peak years, establishing the 2nd-hottest outcome as the clear market leader. With ENSO-neutral conditions holding and no major heatwave signals emerging in primary monitoring regions, satellite and surface-station data from agencies such as NOAA show anomalies consistent with second-place historical rankings rather than record-breaking extremes. Model consensus indicates limited intensification potential through the short window, while upcoming final dataset revisions could still shift the precise ordering before market resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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