In California's 11th Congressional District, a solidly Democratic seat vacated by retiring Representative Nancy Pelosi, the November 2026 general election pits State Senator Scott Wiener against San Francisco Supervisor Connie Chan after both advanced from the June top-two primary. Wiener's 40.7% primary share and commanding fundraising edge—over $1.2 million cash on hand versus Chan's roughly $360,000—support his 59.5% implied probability in trader consensus, reflecting his record on housing production and broad institutional backing. Chan's 41% positioning draws from progressive endorsements, including Pelosi and labor groups, plus emphasis on community input amid differing approaches to development. The contest remains close due to the district's partisan lean, intra-party divides on policy priorities, and high-profile endorsements on both sides. Upcoming events such as debates, final spending reports, and turnout mobilization could shift margins before Election Day.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoCA-11 House Election Winner (Individual)
CA-11 House Election Winner (Individual)
$12,983 Wol.
$12,983 Wol.
Scott Wiener
60%
Connie Chan
41%
$12,983 Wol.
$12,983 Wol.
Scott Wiener
60%
Connie Chan
41%
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rynek otwarty: Jul 9, 2026, 10:00 PM ET
Rozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...In California's 11th Congressional District, a solidly Democratic seat vacated by retiring Representative Nancy Pelosi, the November 2026 general election pits State Senator Scott Wiener against San Francisco Supervisor Connie Chan after both advanced from the June top-two primary. Wiener's 40.7% primary share and commanding fundraising edge—over $1.2 million cash on hand versus Chan's roughly $360,000—support his 59.5% implied probability in trader consensus, reflecting his record on housing production and broad institutional backing. Chan's 41% positioning draws from progressive endorsements, including Pelosi and labor groups, plus emphasis on community input amid differing approaches to development. The contest remains close due to the district's partisan lean, intra-party divides on policy priorities, and high-profile endorsements on both sides. Upcoming events such as debates, final spending reports, and turnout mobilization could shift margins before Election Day.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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