Hilda Solis (D) and Pedro Antonio Casas (R) advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary in this open, redrawn Southern California district spanning Los Angeles and Orange counties, setting up a November general election. The seat carries a D+8 to D+10 partisan voter index from prior presidential results, with Democratic registration advantages and historical patterns supporting a Democratic hold. Solis benefits from strong name recognition, substantial fundraising over $1 million, and independent expenditures, while Casas trails significantly in resources. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, aligning with trader consensus on the favored party outcome. Margin probabilities remain clustered near 41-50% across ranges because variables such as mail ballot turnout, independent voter splits, and any late-cycle national or local economic messaging could compress or expand the final spread without altering the likely winner. No major developments since primary certification have shifted these dynamics.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoCA-38 House Election Margin of Victory
CA-38 House Election Margin of Victory
Democrat 25-30% 43%
Democrat 20-25% 43%
Democrat 10-15% 43%
Republican Wins 42%
NOWE
NOWE
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat 30%+
40%
Democrat 25-30%
43%
Democrat 20-25%
43%
Democrat 15-20%
41%
Democrat 10-15%
43%
Democrat 5-10%
40%
Democrat 0-5%
41%
Republican Wins
42%
Democrat 25-30% 43%
Democrat 20-25% 43%
Democrat 10-15% 43%
Republican Wins 42%
NOWE
NOWE
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat 30%+
$0 Wol.
40%
Democrat 25-30%
$0 Wol.
43%
Democrat 20-25%
$0 Wol.
43%
Democrat 15-20%
$0 Wol.
41%
Democrat 10-15%
$0 Wol.
43%
Democrat 5-10%
$0 Wol.
40%
Democrat 0-5%
$0 Wol.
41%
Republican Wins
$0 Wol.
42%
The 2026 CA-38 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-38 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Hilda Solis (D) and Pedro Antonio Casas (R) advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary in this open, redrawn Southern California district spanning Los Angeles and Orange counties, setting up a November general election. The seat carries a D+8 to D+10 partisan voter index from prior presidential results, with Democratic registration advantages and historical patterns supporting a Democratic hold. Solis benefits from strong name recognition, substantial fundraising over $1 million, and independent expenditures, while Casas trails significantly in resources. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, aligning with trader consensus on the favored party outcome. Margin probabilities remain clustered near 41-50% across ranges because variables such as mail ballot turnout, independent voter splits, and any late-cycle national or local economic messaging could compress or expand the final spread without altering the likely winner. No major developments since primary certification have shifted these dynamics.
The 2026 CA-38 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-38 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-38 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Sep 2, 2026, 3:41 PM ET
Wolumen
$0Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 2, 2026, 3:41 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 CA-38 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-38 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Hilda Solis (D) and Pedro Antonio Casas (R) advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary in this open, redrawn Southern California district spanning Los Angeles and Orange counties, setting up a November general election. The seat carries a D+8 to D+10 partisan voter index from prior presidential results, with Democratic registration advantages and historical patterns supporting a Democratic hold. Solis benefits from strong name recognition, substantial fundraising over $1 million, and independent expenditures, while Casas trails significantly in resources. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, aligning with trader consensus on the favored party outcome. Margin probabilities remain clustered near 41-50% across ranges because variables such as mail ballot turnout, independent voter splits, and any late-cycle national or local economic messaging could compress or expand the final spread without altering the likely winner. No major developments since primary certification have shifted these dynamics.
The 2026 CA-38 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-38 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-38 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Wolumen
$0Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 2, 2026, 3:41 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Hilda Solis (D) and Pedro Antonio Casas (R) advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary in this open, redrawn Southern California district spanning Los Angeles and Orange counties, setting up a November general election. The seat carries a D+8 to D+10 partisan voter index from prior presidential results, with Democratic registration advantages and historical patterns supporting a Democratic hold. Solis benefits from strong name recognition, substantial fundraising over $1 million, and independent expenditures, while Casas trails significantly in resources. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, aligning with trader consensus on the favored party outcome. Margin probabilities remain clustered near 41-50% across ranges because variables such as mail ballot turnout, independent voter splits, and any late-cycle national or local economic messaging could compress or expand the final spread without altering the likely winner. No major developments since primary certification have shifted these dynamics.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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