Recent U.S. economic data has solidified trader consensus around no change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, with the 93.5% implied probability reflecting a firm labor market and persistent inflation pressures. April's hotter-than-expected CPI print and 115,000 nonfarm payrolls gain—pushing unemployment to a steady 4.3%—have kept the federal funds rate range at 3.5%-3.75% attractive for policymakers, while elevated oil prices from Middle East developments add upside risks to inflation without derailing growth. This positioning aligns with the Fed's recent communications emphasizing data dependence and a neutral stance, as futures markets similarly price out near-term easing. The next May CPI release and June FOMC meeting remain key swing factors that could alter the rate path if inflation moderates sharply or employment weakens.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoDecyzja Fed w lipcu?
Decyzja Fed w lipcu?
Brak zmiany 94%
Podwyżka o 25 pb 4.0%
Obniżka o 25 pb 2.1%
Obniżka o 50+ pb <1%
$5,596,953 Wol.
$5,596,953 Wol.
Jul 29, 2026
Obniżka o 50+ pb
1%
Obniżka o 25 pb
2%
Brak zmiany
94%
Podwyżka o 25 pb
4%
Podwyżka o 50+ pb
<1%
Brak zmiany 94%
Podwyżka o 25 pb 4.0%
Obniżka o 25 pb 2.1%
Obniżka o 50+ pb <1%
$5,596,953 Wol.
$5,596,953 Wol.
Jul 29, 2026
Obniżka o 50+ pb
$550,853 Wol.
1%
Obniżka o 25 pb
$425,006 Wol.
2%
Brak zmiany
$663,120 Wol.
94%
Podwyżka o 25 pb
$3,407,828 Wol.
4%
Podwyżka o 50+ pb
$550,146 Wol.
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent U.S. economic data has solidified trader consensus around no change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, with the 93.5% implied probability reflecting a firm labor market and persistent inflation pressures. April's hotter-than-expected CPI print and 115,000 nonfarm payrolls gain—pushing unemployment to a steady 4.3%—have kept the federal funds rate range at 3.5%-3.75% attractive for policymakers, while elevated oil prices from Middle East developments add upside risks to inflation without derailing growth. This positioning aligns with the Fed's recent communications emphasizing data dependence and a neutral stance, as futures markets similarly price out near-term easing. The next May CPI release and June FOMC meeting remain key swing factors that could alter the rate path if inflation moderates sharply or employment weakens.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Rynek otwarty: Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
Wolumen
$5,596,953Data zakończenia
Jul 29, 2026Rynek otwarty
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent U.S. economic data has solidified trader consensus around no change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, with the 93.5% implied probability reflecting a firm labor market and persistent inflation pressures. April's hotter-than-expected CPI print and 115,000 nonfarm payrolls gain—pushing unemployment to a steady 4.3%—have kept the federal funds rate range at 3.5%-3.75% attractive for policymakers, while elevated oil prices from Middle East developments add upside risks to inflation without derailing growth. This positioning aligns with the Fed's recent communications emphasizing data dependence and a neutral stance, as futures markets similarly price out near-term easing. The next May CPI release and June FOMC meeting remain key swing factors that could alter the rate path if inflation moderates sharply or employment weakens.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Wolumen
$5,596,953Data zakończenia
Jul 29, 2026Rynek otwarty
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent U.S. economic data has solidified trader consensus around no change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, with the 93.5% implied probability reflecting a firm labor market and persistent inflation pressures. April's hotter-than-expected CPI print and 115,000 nonfarm payrolls gain—pushing unemployment to a steady 4.3%—have kept the federal funds rate range at 3.5%-3.75% attractive for policymakers, while elevated oil prices from Middle East developments add upside risks to inflation without derailing growth. This positioning aligns with the Fed's recent communications emphasizing data dependence and a neutral stance, as futures markets similarly price out near-term easing. The next May CPI release and June FOMC meeting remain key swing factors that could alter the rate path if inflation moderates sharply or employment weakens.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Często zadawane pytania