**Recent Senate passage of a continuing resolution to extend federal funding through mid-December has anchored trader expectations against an October 1 lapse.** On August 8, the Senate approved a stopgap measure funding agencies at current levels past the November midterms, following the House's earlier adoption of a similar CR through early December. Both chambers have prioritized avoiding a shutdown during an election year, consistent with historical patterns where full-year appropriations rarely clear before the fiscal year begins. Negotiations now focus on reconciling minor differences and limited anomalies, with Congress adjourning for recess. This legislative momentum, combined with bipartisan procedural agreements, underpins the 84.5% implied probability that no appropriations lapse will occur on October 1.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoFederal Appropriations Lapse on October 1?
Federal Appropriations Lapse on October 1?
16% szansa
NOWE
NOWE
Oct 1, 2026
16% szansa
NOWE
NOWE
Oct 1, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a partial or full United States federal government lapse in appropriations occurs on October 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress and the President fail to enact legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse.
A lapse of any duration affecting any portion of the United States federal government will qualify, regardless of whether it results in any operational impact. A subsequent government shutdown is not necessary for this market to resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government, including from Congress.gov; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Recent Senate passage of a continuing resolution to extend federal funding through mid-December has anchored trader expectations against an October 1 lapse.** On August 8, the Senate approved a stopgap measure funding agencies at current levels past the November midterms, following the House's earlier adoption of a similar CR through early December. Both chambers have prioritized avoiding a shutdown during an election year, consistent with historical patterns where full-year appropriations rarely clear before the fiscal year begins. Negotiations now focus on reconciling minor differences and limited anomalies, with Congress adjourning for recess. This legislative momentum, combined with bipartisan procedural agreements, underpins the 84.5% implied probability that no appropriations lapse will occur on October 1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a partial or full United States federal government lapse in appropriations occurs on October 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress and the President fail to enact legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse.
A lapse of any duration affecting any portion of the United States federal government will qualify, regardless of whether it results in any operational impact. A subsequent government shutdown is not necessary for this market to resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government, including from Congress.gov; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress and the President fail to enact legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse.
A lapse of any duration affecting any portion of the United States federal government will qualify, regardless of whether it results in any operational impact. A subsequent government shutdown is not necessary for this market to resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government, including from Congress.gov; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 5, 2026, 11:30 AM ET
Wolumen
$1,319Data zakończenia
Oct 1, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 5, 2026, 11:30 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a partial or full United States federal government lapse in appropriations occurs on October 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress and the President fail to enact legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse.
A lapse of any duration affecting any portion of the United States federal government will qualify, regardless of whether it results in any operational impact. A subsequent government shutdown is not necessary for this market to resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government, including from Congress.gov; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Recent Senate passage of a continuing resolution to extend federal funding through mid-December has anchored trader expectations against an October 1 lapse.** On August 8, the Senate approved a stopgap measure funding agencies at current levels past the November midterms, following the House's earlier adoption of a similar CR through early December. Both chambers have prioritized avoiding a shutdown during an election year, consistent with historical patterns where full-year appropriations rarely clear before the fiscal year begins. Negotiations now focus on reconciling minor differences and limited anomalies, with Congress adjourning for recess. This legislative momentum, combined with bipartisan procedural agreements, underpins the 84.5% implied probability that no appropriations lapse will occur on October 1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a partial or full United States federal government lapse in appropriations occurs on October 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress and the President fail to enact legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse.
A lapse of any duration affecting any portion of the United States federal government will qualify, regardless of whether it results in any operational impact. A subsequent government shutdown is not necessary for this market to resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government, including from Congress.gov; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress and the President fail to enact legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse.
A lapse of any duration affecting any portion of the United States federal government will qualify, regardless of whether it results in any operational impact. A subsequent government shutdown is not necessary for this market to resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government, including from Congress.gov; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Wolumen
$1,319Data zakończenia
Oct 1, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 5, 2026, 11:30 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Recent Senate passage of a continuing resolution to extend federal funding through mid-December has anchored trader expectations against an October 1 lapse.** On August 8, the Senate approved a stopgap measure funding agencies at current levels past the November midterms, following the House's earlier adoption of a similar CR through early December. Both chambers have prioritized avoiding a shutdown during an election year, consistent with historical patterns where full-year appropriations rarely clear before the fiscal year begins. Negotiations now focus on reconciling minor differences and limited anomalies, with Congress adjourning for recess. This legislative momentum, combined with bipartisan procedural agreements, underpins the 84.5% implied probability that no appropriations lapse will occur on October 1.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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