Incumbent Republican August Pfluger leads Democrat Claire Reynolds by roughly 19 points in Texas’s 11th congressional district as nearly all votes are counted following the November 3 general election. The market’s tight distribution across Republican margin buckets from 5–25 percent reflects uncertainty over final certification and modest shifts from partial results in suburban counties added during recent redistricting. Those changes incorporated more Democratic-leaning precincts near Austin, narrowing the margin from prior cycles where the seat exceeded 30 points. Remaining vote canvassing, turnout differentials in rural versus suburban areas, and any procedural challenges could still adjust the precise outcome within the leading probability bands.