Celina Leão (PP), the incumbent governor who assumed office in March 2026 after Ibaneis Rocha’s departure, secured 49.93% in the October 4 first round—short of an outright win by roughly 1,089 votes—while advancing comfortably ahead of Leandro Grass (PT) at 34.47%. Her position stems from a wide right-leaning coalition, strong evangelical support, and the TSE’s disqualification of former governor José Roberto Arruda, which consolidated her lead in pre-election surveys. Traders price her at 98.6% for the October 25 runoff because these structural advantages and first-round momentum have produced a commanding edge in the two-candidate contest. A realistic shift would require unusually high opposition turnout, late-breaking developments affecting voter sentiment, or a sharp erosion of her coalition backing before the second round.