Anthropic’s recent Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 releases have driven the current HLE frontier to 65% and 64.7% respectively on verified leaderboards as of mid-September 2026, reflecting gains from enhanced reasoning architectures, chain-of-thought scaling, and targeted training on expert-level multi-step problems. This positions Anthropic ahead of Meta’s Muse Spark series at 62% and OpenAI’s GPT-5.4 variants near 58-59%, underscoring competitive pressure across labs to close the gap on graduate-level knowledge and calibration benchmarks. With three-plus months remaining, further gains hinge on new model drops, tool-augmented inference, and refinements to HLE-Verified subsets, though the benchmark’s design continues to limit rapid saturation compared with earlier tests like MMLU. Trader sentiment tracks these incremental capability jumps closely amid ongoing uncertainty around exact year-end resolution criteria.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
Highest score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
$71,625 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
60%+
52%
65%+
29%
70%+
15%
75%+
11%
80%+
7%
90%+
5%
$71,625 Wol.
60%+
$40,843 Wol.
52%
65%+
$16,633 Wol.
29%
70%+
$6,392 Wol.
15%
75%+
$3,602 Wol.
11%
80%+
$1,710 Wol.
7%
90%+
$2,445 Wol.
5%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Anthropic’s recent Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 releases have driven the current HLE frontier to 65% and 64.7% respectively on verified leaderboards as of mid-September 2026, reflecting gains from enhanced reasoning architectures, chain-of-thought scaling, and targeted training on expert-level multi-step problems. This positions Anthropic ahead of Meta’s Muse Spark series at 62% and OpenAI’s GPT-5.4 variants near 58-59%, underscoring competitive pressure across labs to close the gap on graduate-level knowledge and calibration benchmarks. With three-plus months remaining, further gains hinge on new model drops, tool-augmented inference, and refinements to HLE-Verified subsets, though the benchmark’s design continues to limit rapid saturation compared with earlier tests like MMLU. Trader sentiment tracks these incremental capability jumps closely amid ongoing uncertainty around exact year-end resolution criteria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Rynek otwarty: Jul 23, 2026, 6:41 PM ET
Wolumen
$71,625Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Jul 23, 2026, 6:41 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://agi.safe.ai/Rozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Anthropic’s recent Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 releases have driven the current HLE frontier to 65% and 64.7% respectively on verified leaderboards as of mid-September 2026, reflecting gains from enhanced reasoning architectures, chain-of-thought scaling, and targeted training on expert-level multi-step problems. This positions Anthropic ahead of Meta’s Muse Spark series at 62% and OpenAI’s GPT-5.4 variants near 58-59%, underscoring competitive pressure across labs to close the gap on graduate-level knowledge and calibration benchmarks. With three-plus months remaining, further gains hinge on new model drops, tool-augmented inference, and refinements to HLE-Verified subsets, though the benchmark’s design continues to limit rapid saturation compared with earlier tests like MMLU. Trader sentiment tracks these incremental capability jumps closely amid ongoing uncertainty around exact year-end resolution criteria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Wolumen
$71,625Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Jul 23, 2026, 6:41 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://agi.safe.ai/Rozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...Anthropic’s recent Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 releases have driven the current HLE frontier to 65% and 64.7% respectively on verified leaderboards as of mid-September 2026, reflecting gains from enhanced reasoning architectures, chain-of-thought scaling, and targeted training on expert-level multi-step problems. This positions Anthropic ahead of Meta’s Muse Spark series at 62% and OpenAI’s GPT-5.4 variants near 58-59%, underscoring competitive pressure across labs to close the gap on graduate-level knowledge and calibration benchmarks. With three-plus months remaining, further gains hinge on new model drops, tool-augmented inference, and refinements to HLE-Verified subsets, though the benchmark’s design continues to limit rapid saturation compared with earlier tests like MMLU. Trader sentiment tracks these incremental capability jumps closely amid ongoing uncertainty around exact year-end resolution criteria.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoPowiązane
Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?
77%
Will the highest score achieved by a Meta model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?
35%
Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?
81%
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