Recent ensemble forecasts from major meteorological models indicate peak temperatures in Beijing on July 4 will most likely fall in the 33–36°C range, aligning with the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around those outcomes. Typical early-July conditions feature strong solar heating under subtropical high pressure, moderated by variable monsoon moisture and possible afternoon thunderstorms that limit daytime maxima. Historical climatology shows July averages near 31–32°C, with urban heat-island effects and weak synoptic forcing occasionally pushing readings 2–4°C higher. Updated model runs over the past 48 hours have narrowed uncertainty by incorporating recent surface observations and steering-pattern shifts, keeping higher extremes (38°C+) at low probabilities due to expected cloud cover and precipitation.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Beijing on July 4?
Highest temperature in Beijing on July 4?
35°C 36%
34°C 28%
36°C 16%
37°C 8%
NOWE
NOWE
Jul 4, 2026
31°C or below
1%
32°C
2%
33°C
7%
34°C
28%
35°C
36%
36°C
16%
37°C
8%
38°C
3%
39°C
1%
40°C
<1%
41°C or higher
<1%
35°C 36%
34°C 28%
36°C 16%
37°C 8%
NOWE
NOWE
Jul 4, 2026
31°C or below
$33 Wol.
1%
32°C
$38 Wol.
2%
33°C
$85 Wol.
7%
34°C
$55 Wol.
28%
35°C
$674 Wol.
36%
36°C
$412 Wol.
16%
37°C
$636 Wol.
8%
38°C
$560 Wol.
3%
39°C
$121 Wol.
1%
40°C
$958 Wol.
<1%
41°C or higher
$58 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from major meteorological models indicate peak temperatures in Beijing on July 4 will most likely fall in the 33–36°C range, aligning with the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around those outcomes. Typical early-July conditions feature strong solar heating under subtropical high pressure, moderated by variable monsoon moisture and possible afternoon thunderstorms that limit daytime maxima. Historical climatology shows July averages near 31–32°C, with urban heat-island effects and weak synoptic forcing occasionally pushing readings 2–4°C higher. Updated model runs over the past 48 hours have narrowed uncertainty by incorporating recent surface observations and steering-pattern shifts, keeping higher extremes (38°C+) at low probabilities due to expected cloud cover and precipitation.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Jul 2, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Wolumen
$3,631Data zakończenia
Jul 4, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 2, 2026, 12:02 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from major meteorological models indicate peak temperatures in Beijing on July 4 will most likely fall in the 33–36°C range, aligning with the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around those outcomes. Typical early-July conditions feature strong solar heating under subtropical high pressure, moderated by variable monsoon moisture and possible afternoon thunderstorms that limit daytime maxima. Historical climatology shows July averages near 31–32°C, with urban heat-island effects and weak synoptic forcing occasionally pushing readings 2–4°C higher. Updated model runs over the past 48 hours have narrowed uncertainty by incorporating recent surface observations and steering-pattern shifts, keeping higher extremes (38°C+) at low probabilities due to expected cloud cover and precipitation.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$3,631Data zakończenia
Jul 4, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 2, 2026, 12:02 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from major meteorological models indicate peak temperatures in Beijing on July 4 will most likely fall in the 33–36°C range, aligning with the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around those outcomes. Typical early-July conditions feature strong solar heating under subtropical high pressure, moderated by variable monsoon moisture and possible afternoon thunderstorms that limit daytime maxima. Historical climatology shows July averages near 31–32°C, with urban heat-island effects and weak synoptic forcing occasionally pushing readings 2–4°C higher. Updated model runs over the past 48 hours have narrowed uncertainty by incorporating recent surface observations and steering-pattern shifts, keeping higher extremes (38°C+) at low probabilities due to expected cloud cover and precipitation.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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