Recent multi-model consensus forecasts and seasonal outlooks from the Hong Kong Observatory indicate normal to above-normal temperatures for early July 2026, with typical daily maxima near the 30–32°C range driven by the prevailing subtropical ridge and moist southwesterly flow. Afternoon convective showers or thunderstorms, common in the summer monsoon regime, introduce uncertainty by limiting insolation and thus differentiating the closely matched 30°C and 31°C market outcomes; clearer or drier conditions would favor the higher end. Historical July climatology shows average highs around 32°C, but short-term model runs emphasize modest day-to-day variability from cloud cover and wind shifts rather than extreme anomalies. Updated guidance closer to the date will refine resolution criteria for the single highest recorded temperature.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Hong Kong on July 5?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 5?
30°C 50%
31°C 29%
32°C 16.9%
33°C 8.9%
NOWE
$32,293 Wol.
NOWE
$32,293 Wol.
Jul 5, 2026
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
1%
29°C
5%
30°C
50%
31°C
29%
32°C
17%
33°C
9%
34°C or higher
1%
30°C 50%
31°C 29%
32°C 16.9%
33°C 8.9%
NOWE
$32,293 Wol.
NOWE
$32,293 Wol.
Jul 5, 2026
24°C or below
$6,426 Wol.
<1%
25°C
$1,664 Wol.
<1%
26°C
$1,176 Wol.
<1%
27°C
$1,310 Wol.
<1%
28°C
$2,490 Wol.
1%
29°C
$4,045 Wol.
5%
30°C
$3,267 Wol.
50%
31°C
$3,086 Wol.
29%
32°C
$4,807 Wol.
17%
33°C
$1,787 Wol.
9%
34°C or higher
$2,235 Wol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 5 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent multi-model consensus forecasts and seasonal outlooks from the Hong Kong Observatory indicate normal to above-normal temperatures for early July 2026, with typical daily maxima near the 30–32°C range driven by the prevailing subtropical ridge and moist southwesterly flow. Afternoon convective showers or thunderstorms, common in the summer monsoon regime, introduce uncertainty by limiting insolation and thus differentiating the closely matched 30°C and 31°C market outcomes; clearer or drier conditions would favor the higher end. Historical July climatology shows average highs around 32°C, but short-term model runs emphasize modest day-to-day variability from cloud cover and wind shifts rather than extreme anomalies. Updated guidance closer to the date will refine resolution criteria for the single highest recorded temperature.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 5 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Rynek otwarty: Jul 3, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Wolumen
$32,293Data zakończenia
Jul 5, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 3, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 5 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent multi-model consensus forecasts and seasonal outlooks from the Hong Kong Observatory indicate normal to above-normal temperatures for early July 2026, with typical daily maxima near the 30–32°C range driven by the prevailing subtropical ridge and moist southwesterly flow. Afternoon convective showers or thunderstorms, common in the summer monsoon regime, introduce uncertainty by limiting insolation and thus differentiating the closely matched 30°C and 31°C market outcomes; clearer or drier conditions would favor the higher end. Historical July climatology shows average highs around 32°C, but short-term model runs emphasize modest day-to-day variability from cloud cover and wind shifts rather than extreme anomalies. Updated guidance closer to the date will refine resolution criteria for the single highest recorded temperature.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 5 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Wolumen
$32,293Data zakończenia
Jul 5, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 3, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent multi-model consensus forecasts and seasonal outlooks from the Hong Kong Observatory indicate normal to above-normal temperatures for early July 2026, with typical daily maxima near the 30–32°C range driven by the prevailing subtropical ridge and moist southwesterly flow. Afternoon convective showers or thunderstorms, common in the summer monsoon regime, introduce uncertainty by limiting insolation and thus differentiating the closely matched 30°C and 31°C market outcomes; clearer or drier conditions would favor the higher end. Historical July climatology shows average highs around 32°C, but short-term model runs emphasize modest day-to-day variability from cloud cover and wind shifts rather than extreme anomalies. Updated guidance closer to the date will refine resolution criteria for the single highest recorded temperature.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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