Trader consensus centers on 98–99°F as the most probable high for Houston on July 21 because short-range forecast guidance from models such as the GFS and NAM indicates surface temperatures peaking slightly above the 95°F climatological normal amid light winds and abundant Gulf moisture. Afternoon convective cloud development and a possible weak sea-breeze front introduce the main uncertainty, potentially capping readings in the mid-90s or allowing brief clearing that supports upper-90s values. Historical analogs for late-July patterns show that modest variations in boundary-layer mixing or timing of diurnal heating can easily shift the daily maximum by 3–5°F, explaining why the adjacent 96–97°F and 100–101°F bins also carry substantial implied probability while lower and higher extremes remain discounted.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Houston on July 21?
Highest temperature in Houston on July 21?
98-99°F 46%
100-101°F 25%
96-97°F 24%
94-95°F 6.5%
NOWE
$12,307 Wol.
NOWE
$12,307 Wol.
Jul 21, 2026
85°F or below
<1%
86-87°F
<1%
88-89°F
<1%
90-91°F
1%
92-93°F
<1%
94-95°F
7%
96-97°F
24%
98-99°F
46%
100-101°F
25%
102-103°F
1%
104°F or higher
1%
98-99°F 46%
100-101°F 25%
96-97°F 24%
94-95°F 6.5%
NOWE
$12,307 Wol.
NOWE
$12,307 Wol.
Jul 21, 2026
85°F or below
$305 Wol.
<1%
86-87°F
$305 Wol.
<1%
88-89°F
$786 Wol.
<1%
90-91°F
$1,875 Wol.
1%
92-93°F
$439 Wol.
<1%
94-95°F
$950 Wol.
7%
96-97°F
$3,411 Wol.
24%
98-99°F
$1,415 Wol.
46%
100-101°F
$1,416 Wol.
25%
102-103°F
$1,106 Wol.
1%
104°F or higher
$335 Wol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus centers on 98–99°F as the most probable high for Houston on July 21 because short-range forecast guidance from models such as the GFS and NAM indicates surface temperatures peaking slightly above the 95°F climatological normal amid light winds and abundant Gulf moisture. Afternoon convective cloud development and a possible weak sea-breeze front introduce the main uncertainty, potentially capping readings in the mid-90s or allowing brief clearing that supports upper-90s values. Historical analogs for late-July patterns show that modest variations in boundary-layer mixing or timing of diurnal heating can easily shift the daily maximum by 3–5°F, explaining why the adjacent 96–97°F and 100–101°F bins also carry substantial implied probability while lower and higher extremes remain discounted.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Jul 19, 2026, 9:09 PM ET
Wolumen
$12,307Data zakończenia
Jul 21, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 19, 2026, 9:09 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus centers on 98–99°F as the most probable high for Houston on July 21 because short-range forecast guidance from models such as the GFS and NAM indicates surface temperatures peaking slightly above the 95°F climatological normal amid light winds and abundant Gulf moisture. Afternoon convective cloud development and a possible weak sea-breeze front introduce the main uncertainty, potentially capping readings in the mid-90s or allowing brief clearing that supports upper-90s values. Historical analogs for late-July patterns show that modest variations in boundary-layer mixing or timing of diurnal heating can easily shift the daily maximum by 3–5°F, explaining why the adjacent 96–97°F and 100–101°F bins also carry substantial implied probability while lower and higher extremes remain discounted.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$12,307Data zakończenia
Jul 21, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 19, 2026, 9:09 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus centers on 98–99°F as the most probable high for Houston on July 21 because short-range forecast guidance from models such as the GFS and NAM indicates surface temperatures peaking slightly above the 95°F climatological normal amid light winds and abundant Gulf moisture. Afternoon convective cloud development and a possible weak sea-breeze front introduce the main uncertainty, potentially capping readings in the mid-90s or allowing brief clearing that supports upper-90s values. Historical analogs for late-July patterns show that modest variations in boundary-layer mixing or timing of diurnal heating can easily shift the daily maximum by 3–5°F, explaining why the adjacent 96–97°F and 100–101°F bins also carry substantial implied probability while lower and higher extremes remain discounted.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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