Latest National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance point to a marine-layer moderated high of 80–82°F in Los Angeles on July 21, establishing the primary driver behind the market’s concentration of implied probability on the 80–81°F bin (43.5%). Persistent onshore flow and low-level stratus have kept coastal maxima several degrees below the broader summer 2026 above-normal temperature outlook issued by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, while recent 48-hour runs show limited warming potential before the next diurnal cycle. Historical July climatology for downtown and LAX stations places the 80–83°F range as the most frequent outcome under similar synoptic patterns, reinforcing trader consensus reflected in the combined 98.5% probability assigned to 78–83°F. Updated short-range forecasts tomorrow morning will provide the final inputs ahead of official station observations used for resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Los Angeles on July 21?
Highest temperature in Los Angeles on July 21?
80-81°F 41%
78-79°F 29%
82-83°F 22%
84-85°F 8%
NOWE
$19,437 Wol.
NOWE
$19,437 Wol.
Jul 21, 2026
73°F or below
<1%
74-75°F
1%
76-77°F
2%
78-79°F
29%
80-81°F
41%
82-83°F
22%
84-85°F
8%
86-87°F
<1%
88-89°F
1%
90-91°F
<1%
92°F or higher
<1%
80-81°F 41%
78-79°F 29%
82-83°F 22%
84-85°F 8%
NOWE
$19,437 Wol.
NOWE
$19,437 Wol.
Jul 21, 2026
73°F or below
$684 Wol.
<1%
74-75°F
$821 Wol.
1%
76-77°F
$1,391 Wol.
2%
78-79°F
$3,864 Wol.
29%
80-81°F
$5,637 Wol.
41%
82-83°F
$1,621 Wol.
22%
84-85°F
$1,607 Wol.
8%
86-87°F
$1,247 Wol.
<1%
88-89°F
$1,105 Wol.
1%
90-91°F
$1,278 Wol.
<1%
92°F or higher
$262 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Los Angeles International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance point to a marine-layer moderated high of 80–82°F in Los Angeles on July 21, establishing the primary driver behind the market’s concentration of implied probability on the 80–81°F bin (43.5%). Persistent onshore flow and low-level stratus have kept coastal maxima several degrees below the broader summer 2026 above-normal temperature outlook issued by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, while recent 48-hour runs show limited warming potential before the next diurnal cycle. Historical July climatology for downtown and LAX stations places the 80–83°F range as the most frequent outcome under similar synoptic patterns, reinforcing trader consensus reflected in the combined 98.5% probability assigned to 78–83°F. Updated short-range forecasts tomorrow morning will provide the final inputs ahead of official station observations used for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Los Angeles International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Los Angeles International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Jul 19, 2026, 9:10 PM ET
Wolumen
$19,437Data zakończenia
Jul 21, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 19, 2026, 9:10 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAXResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Los Angeles International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance point to a marine-layer moderated high of 80–82°F in Los Angeles on July 21, establishing the primary driver behind the market’s concentration of implied probability on the 80–81°F bin (43.5%). Persistent onshore flow and low-level stratus have kept coastal maxima several degrees below the broader summer 2026 above-normal temperature outlook issued by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, while recent 48-hour runs show limited warming potential before the next diurnal cycle. Historical July climatology for downtown and LAX stations places the 80–83°F range as the most frequent outcome under similar synoptic patterns, reinforcing trader consensus reflected in the combined 98.5% probability assigned to 78–83°F. Updated short-range forecasts tomorrow morning will provide the final inputs ahead of official station observations used for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Los Angeles International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Los Angeles International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$19,437Data zakończenia
Jul 21, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 19, 2026, 9:10 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAXResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance point to a marine-layer moderated high of 80–82°F in Los Angeles on July 21, establishing the primary driver behind the market’s concentration of implied probability on the 80–81°F bin (43.5%). Persistent onshore flow and low-level stratus have kept coastal maxima several degrees below the broader summer 2026 above-normal temperature outlook issued by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, while recent 48-hour runs show limited warming potential before the next diurnal cycle. Historical July climatology for downtown and LAX stations places the 80–83°F range as the most frequent outcome under similar synoptic patterns, reinforcing trader consensus reflected in the combined 98.5% probability assigned to 78–83°F. Updated short-range forecasts tomorrow morning will provide the final inputs ahead of official station observations used for resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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